ES #F 100606 Full Moon in effect?

Globex Low is currently at 1358.50 which is a .707 fib level of the last move up. 120 min chart shows a triggered sell pattern with no buy pattern in place. 8min and 6000V currently show support at the GL with divergence, for a retracement back up. IF we go down, THEN look for support off the current LIS at 1356.50.

Update at 08:31 EST: 8:30 report came out, mkt spiked down to 1357.00 and test of 1356.50 low, then ran up to the .618 fib level and prior high at 1360.75; market falls back to the .786 fib level. 120min remains bearish.

Update at 08:38 EST: Test of current GL at 1357.00. Look for JOT ss pattern upon retracement. Sell 1358.00 for another test of 1356.50 low.

Update at 09:40 EST: Short term support off PRZ at 1353.75: it is a .618 fib level, .500 level, and also a 1.414 fib level. Be on alert for shallow retracement.

Update at 09:55 EST: 60min chart remains bearish; no buy in sight. Look for current low at 1353.50 to be broken. Next test is possible 1350.50 LIS.

Update at 09:59 EST: I see a double bottom for scalp long entry. Higher risk because retracement could be narrow.

Update at 10:23 EST: Long scalp entry triggered on test of 1353.25 low. First tgt is test of current high at 1356.25. Can also hold runner for higher.

Update at 10:33 EST: Current high tested; provided JOT sell short entry also. Range getting tighter and tighter, making it tougher to scalp the edges. Are we building a base for higher? Looking and more and more like it is.

Update at 10:43 EST: Long 1355.00 for gap close.

Update at 10:51 EST: Sell patterns on both 8min and 6000V chart for pullback; current LIS is 1356.50. Possible wave 4, and then higher high. Wave 3 could be extending. Watching carefully. Current support zone off 1356.00 ish. Look for possible JOT longs if we get there.

Update at 11:07 EST: Market finds support off LIS at 1356.50, but will it hold? Mixed signals with 8min and 6000V chart with sell patterns in place, and no buy pattern as of yet.

Update at 11:22 EST: Mixed signals continue. Slight upside bias for the moment. But things can change rather quickly. Sell signal here for test of low at 1353.25. It is a JOT sell against test of high at 1358.00. We are currently trading below the OP, and have been below all morning. The only problem is the 6000V chart is not in correct position for a high probability trade entry sell short.

Update at 11:32 EST: Sell short on test of 1358.00 high.

Update at 12:12 EST: 120min remains bearish; Possible long pattern setting up to be triggered off 8min and 6000V chart. Too bearish so higher risk.

Update at 12:18 EST: long 1354.50 for scalp. Let's see if we can pull 4 ticks out of this. This is the second time we have come to test the low, so higher risk trade entry. First trade usually higher probability of success. Price action is bearish. Lesson here is: Best to scalp in the direction of the trend .... NOT counter trend. In scalping, one needs a high success rate to be consistently profitable. IF short, stay short. Have to trust what I see, NOT what I think.

Update at 12:32 EST: What do I see? I see the low holding and both the 8min and 6000V chart in position to trigger long, hence the long scalp. Have not been stopped out as of yet. Either this trade works or it doesn't. As determined, high risk trade, and stopped out. The higher timeframe charts really tell the story.

Update at 13:30 EST: Are we in a big wave 4 type pattern? IF we are, is it complete?

Update at 13:21 EST: Important LIS at 1356.50 is now resistance. It is also a .707 fib level. Sell short against this for lower. It is also a .382 fib level. 120min chart remains bearish with no buy pattern as of yet. IF the low at 1352.50 holds, THEN look for buy pattern trigger off 8min and 6000V charts to enter long.

Update at 13:45 EST: We had a buy signal off Tick chart to enter long from 1356.00. A little late, so let's see if we can get at least 4ticks out of it. Looking for possible gap close. We need to stay above the 1356.50 LIS to make this a good long.

Update at 14:18 EST: 3 waves up into 1357.50 and mixed signals. Are we in a wave 3 that is extending, or are we in an abc consolidation type wave for lower? Both the 8min and 6000V charts have sell patterns ready to trigger. However, higher timeframe charts remain bullish.

Update at 14:36 EST: LIS holding; looking for gap close now.

Update at 14:45 EST: Resistance now at 1359.50, which is a 1.27 fib level and in zone of .618 fib level 1359.25. Do NOT ignore confluence of sell signals -- both 8min and 6000V had sell signals. This would be conservative exit to preserve profits. We did hit confluence of resistance at PRZ (1.27 fib and .618 fib). Weaker now as we cannot hold the OP; down we go.

Update at 15:33 EST: Support at .50 fib level and also 1356.50 LIS. 120min and 60min charts still stay we have possible upside.

Update at 16:02 EST: 3 waves up into 1360.00. We are still shy of gap fill still.

ES #F 100506 Full Steam Ahead

The market made a GH at a 1.618 fib level of 1359.50. Looks like 5 waves up from 1339.75 into resistance. Look for possible bigger retracement, especially after big move yesterday from low of 1339.75. Have we completed wave 3? Only time will tell.

Update at 07:51 EST: 5 waves down into 1356.75 look for retrace of small move down fro the high. Buy signals off both 8min and 6000V, so look for gap close at 1358.25 and the .618 fib level at 1358.50.

Update at 08:52 EST: Both upside tgts hit. Small bearish gartley butterfly pattern for sell short against 1358.75 high. 6000V chart NOT in line for the sell short though. So higher risk.

Update at 09:31 EST: Day session only chart has now made a double top at 1359.00 for a good sell short entry. Price action bullish; so long as 1359.50 GH holds, we have a good sell short entry trade. This is the countertrend trade, as the higher timeframe charts remain bullish still. Tight stops are a must. 30min chart says to be bullish, no sell pattern as of yet.

Update at 09:47 EST: Sell short again for larger retracement.

Update at 10:01 EST: Sell short again for larger retracement.

Update at 10:32 EST: Support here at 1356.50 for scalp long entry or "take some off the table for the shorts" -- retracement coming.

Update at 14:58 EST: double top at 2360.75 for a sell short with minimum risk. Keep in mind higher timeframe charts remain bullish.

Update at 15:08 EST: 1361.50 is a 1.27 fib level. I only count 3 waves so far, so possible range again for higher high to complete wave 5. Also, wave 3 can also extend.

ES #F 100406 Wave 3 Impulse Wave

We now have 5 waves down into GL at 1341.75. Then an abc 3 wave pattern into .618 fib level into 1345.75 resistance. Sell short entry against that high for a low risk high probability trade for test of low and lower. IF we go lower, THEN downside tgts are: 1340.75, 1340.50, 1339.25, 1338.48, 1337.25, test of 1336.00 low, 1334.75 ish.

Update at 09:22 EST: 5 waves down into 1.27 fib level of 1340.75 for support (new GL).

Update at 09:31 EST: .618 fib tgt hit; PRZ here for move up. Market trying for a gap close. 120min chart has a sell in place, and no buy as of yet. Both the 8min and 6000V charts are in position to give buy patten trigger. Long trades will be for scalps initially (or hold trailers).

Update at 09:52 EST: 5 waves up into 1343.00 LIS resistance. Unable to fill gap. Sell pattern off both the Tick chart and 6000V chart for test of the GL at 1340.50. 120min chart remains more bearish than bullish. Day session only chart has sell pattern completed, and no buy pattern as of yet.

Update at 10:05 EST: Possible 5 waves down into LIS of 1340.00 ish.

Update at 10:35 EST: 1.27 fib tgt hit; sell short against 1347.25 high now in place for a low risk entry. Possible 5 waves up, so expecting a deeper retracement. Scalp 1 car, and hold 1 runner for bigger tgt. Mixed signals, so higher risk, but the sell short is the trade that is current on charts. Lower tgt to aim for is the .618 to .786 fib levels -- 1346.75 to 1341.50ish. But will watch lower timeframe charts for hints of support and bullish price action.

Update at 11:02 EST: Small LIS at 1345.75. Let's see if this ends up to be resistance or support.

Update at 11:20 EST: 5 waves down and buy pattern off 6000V.

Update at 12:03 EST: Test of 1350.50 high for a quick scalp sell short. Current resistance is a 1.27 fib level.

Update at 13:23 EST: abc price pattern into LIS of 1347.75. Wave C had 5 waves into 1347.75 low.

Update at 13:34 EST: 5 waves up into new high and 1.618 fib level of 1352.50. Sell short quick scalp with low risk. Higher timeframes now mega bullish. Next upside tgt is 1354.50 ish to 1360ish.

Update at 13:41 EST: Sell short against current 1352.75 high, based on idea that we now have 5 waves up in wave 3. So looking for a buy signal to exit the sell short.

Update at 13:55 EST: support off 1351.50. Higher timeframe remains bullish.

Update at 15:03 EST: 1357.00 current resistance. Market in wave 3 of 5. Wave 3 is impulsing, with very shallow pullbacks. Triple divergence and possible 5 waves up. Sell short against 1357.00 for low risk trade.

Update at 16:15 EST: 1359.00 is a 1.27 fib level.

ES #F 100306 Retracement Time

Market found support at GL of 1337.00, which happens to be a .786 fib level of the wave up into 1350.50 high. Now the 1340.00 LIS becomes GH and resistance. We had 5 small waves up from 1337.00 low to 1340.00 high. Now we have retracement back to test GL. We have a LIS at 1336.75 that could provide support. All timeframes continue to look bearish. IF the 1337.00 low does NOT hold, THEN market will move down to test the old support at 1333.50.

Update at 08:15 EST: There will be a long entry opportunity at 1337.75 upon test of the 1337.00 low. Upside tgts: Gap close at 1340.50, 1341.25, 1342.00 to 1345.00 ish. Downside tgts to be determined as the mkt develops.

Update at 09:35 EST: Sell opportunity with test of GH at 1340.00; sell entry 1339.25; We had a 3 wave pattern up into test of GH. Possible wave 4 type of pattern here. IF that is the case, THEN we will go lower. A sell short can tgt the 1333.50 LIS test and then a 1331.25 LIS test. Support at Old resistance of 1336.75 for the moment.

Update at 09:55 EST: 5 waves down from 1340 GH? Look for sell pattern for JOT ss at the small .618 and OP.

Update at 10:00 EST: JOT sell short with OP as resistance.

Update at 10:16 EST: Double bottom long entry. Exit sell short and enter long for gap close. Look for wave extention in wave 3, in order to achieve tgt.

Update at 10:38 EST: Small scalp sell short against LIS of 1340.00 which also happens to be GH. Also, I count 5 waves up into 1340.00 high. So, I count an abc 3 wave pattern into major resistance for a good sell short opportunity with limited risk. Good trade to take just based on setup. Look for .618 of 5 waves up as first tgt; then look for signs of either buying or more selling. If buying, then the move up is going to extend. If weak, then we go make a lower low.

Update at 11:05 EST: .618 tgt hit; holding runner for lower -- to 1333.50 LIS test, and possibly lower.

Update at 11:15 EST: higher timeframe charts show bullish bias; reverse out of short and now long. Gap is now closed. Look for signs of impulsiveness. IF we don't get that, THEN the move up must be corrective, and I will look for sell short entry at logical levels of resistance.

Update at 12:08 EST: Close enough to the 1345.00 tgt - 1344.75 was a prior support LIS. Old support becomes new resistance and all that. Interestingly, 1344.75 is also a .707 fib level of a smaller range. No sell signal yet off higher timeframe charts, so it is possible that mkt can go higher still. 120min and 60min charts both are quite bullish still. The 120min chart indicates that there is enough momentum to take this mkt even higher -- next upside tgts: 1346.25, 1347.25ish, 1349ish, and test of 1350.50 high.

Update at 12:21 EST: Even though the 6000V chart is screaming sell .... (4 dojis in a row with divergence and possible 5 waves up), the higher timeframe charts remains very bullish.

Update at 12:24 EST: Scalp sell short 1347.00 based on .786 fib and abc with 5 waves in wave C. Charts remain bullish. Sell Short taken pure based on pattern, and wave count. Hold trailer for bigger retracement if so desired. Otherwise should be good for scalp.

Update at 13:46 EST: Double bottom off 1344.50 for a long entry. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish. Long entry should tgt the .618 fib at 1346.50ish.

Update at 14:03 EST: .618 fib tgt hit. Bearish gartley butterfly pattern for a sell short. Higher risk trade as higher timeframes remain bullish. 60min chart still in extremes.

Update at 14:12 EST: Sell double top.

Update at 14:30 EST: 5 waves down into 1.27 fib level. Candle reversal pattern and buy pattern set up off both the 8min and 6000V charts, so expect some kind of retracement. Mixed signals now, so probably stuck in range or wave 4. IF wave 4, the key is to identify the end of wave 4 for higher. So far we have abc into 1343.75 low for a buy for the potential to make a higher high.

Update at 14:55 EST: Another double top sell short.

ES #F 100206 A New Day

Possible 5 waves down from 1350.50 high into GL of 1343.50. The waves are corrective in nature. IF we have 5 waves down, THEN look for abc correction back to the .618 fib level of 1347.75 ish. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish at this point. Early signs of possible support seen on 8min and 6000V chart for the moment. Things to watch out for this morning -- 1) we have a gap above to fill at 1345.50 2) we are at important LIS of 1343.00 yet again 3) start of new month and new quarter 4) if 1343.00 LIS breaks, next tgt is the 1340 LIS.

Update at 09:31 EST: Gap is now filled. Resistance now at OP and .382 fib level of 1345.50, which is .382 fib of last move down.... This wave could be extending, so Sell short against OP and hold for lower. We had a 5034 sell short pattern off both the 8min and the 6000V charts. The only concern is that we have mixed signals, so not the best trade setup. Downside tgt for now is the 1340.00 LIS, then lower.

Update at 09:55 EST: market waiting for 10:00 reports to come out. Mixed signals now. A little more difficult to determine direction.

Update at 10:24 EST: Double bottom for a long entry. Look for test of OP and current high at 1346.00. This is looking more and more like a consolidation wave ... perhaps wave B triangle pattern formation? IF that is the case, then lower lows is the outcome. Disregarding wave counting, the indicators say that we have more upside. Thus, we have mixed signals ... so caution is in order.

Update at 11:46 EST: .618 fib tgt of 1347.75 hit; Mixed signals now and narrow range, so more dangerous and high risk low reward; need to identify the "ends" for higher probability entries.

Update at 12:45 EST: Sell short entry against test of 1348.25 high.

Update at 13:41 EST: short term support off 1344.50, which is a .786 fib level; expect lower to 1340.00 LIS test.

Update at 13:49 EST: Short term support off 1341.50 which is a 1.414 fib level. We had impulse wave down into suport. Expect is to range then go lower.

Update at 14:02 EST: 5 waves down into 1340 LIS. Expect some kind of retracement or profit-taking here. Potential PRZ here as: 1) big LIS 2) 1.414 fib 3) .618 fib of last move up into 1350.50 high. IF we have 5 waves down, THEN look for abc pattern into the .618 fib level. No buy patterns yet off higher timeframe charts; remains bearish still.

Update at 14:55 EST: 1339.25 is .382 fib level for support for time being. 60min chart remains mega bearish.

Update at 15:15 EST: long off double bottom at the .382 fib level of 1339.25.

Update at 15:55 EST: Resistance at a .382 fib level at 1342.75. Sell pattern off both 8min and 6000V but 15min has no signal.