ES #F 100306 Retracement Time

Market found support at GL of 1337.00, which happens to be a .786 fib level of the wave up into 1350.50 high. Now the 1340.00 LIS becomes GH and resistance. We had 5 small waves up from 1337.00 low to 1340.00 high. Now we have retracement back to test GL. We have a LIS at 1336.75 that could provide support. All timeframes continue to look bearish. IF the 1337.00 low does NOT hold, THEN market will move down to test the old support at 1333.50.

Update at 08:15 EST: There will be a long entry opportunity at 1337.75 upon test of the 1337.00 low. Upside tgts: Gap close at 1340.50, 1341.25, 1342.00 to 1345.00 ish. Downside tgts to be determined as the mkt develops.

Update at 09:35 EST: Sell opportunity with test of GH at 1340.00; sell entry 1339.25; We had a 3 wave pattern up into test of GH. Possible wave 4 type of pattern here. IF that is the case, THEN we will go lower. A sell short can tgt the 1333.50 LIS test and then a 1331.25 LIS test. Support at Old resistance of 1336.75 for the moment.

Update at 09:55 EST: 5 waves down from 1340 GH? Look for sell pattern for JOT ss at the small .618 and OP.

Update at 10:00 EST: JOT sell short with OP as resistance.

Update at 10:16 EST: Double bottom long entry. Exit sell short and enter long for gap close. Look for wave extention in wave 3, in order to achieve tgt.

Update at 10:38 EST: Small scalp sell short against LIS of 1340.00 which also happens to be GH. Also, I count 5 waves up into 1340.00 high. So, I count an abc 3 wave pattern into major resistance for a good sell short opportunity with limited risk. Good trade to take just based on setup. Look for .618 of 5 waves up as first tgt; then look for signs of either buying or more selling. If buying, then the move up is going to extend. If weak, then we go make a lower low.

Update at 11:05 EST: .618 tgt hit; holding runner for lower -- to 1333.50 LIS test, and possibly lower.

Update at 11:15 EST: higher timeframe charts show bullish bias; reverse out of short and now long. Gap is now closed. Look for signs of impulsiveness. IF we don't get that, THEN the move up must be corrective, and I will look for sell short entry at logical levels of resistance.

Update at 12:08 EST: Close enough to the 1345.00 tgt - 1344.75 was a prior support LIS. Old support becomes new resistance and all that. Interestingly, 1344.75 is also a .707 fib level of a smaller range. No sell signal yet off higher timeframe charts, so it is possible that mkt can go higher still. 120min and 60min charts both are quite bullish still. The 120min chart indicates that there is enough momentum to take this mkt even higher -- next upside tgts: 1346.25, 1347.25ish, 1349ish, and test of 1350.50 high.

Update at 12:21 EST: Even though the 6000V chart is screaming sell .... (4 dojis in a row with divergence and possible 5 waves up), the higher timeframe charts remains very bullish.

Update at 12:24 EST: Scalp sell short 1347.00 based on .786 fib and abc with 5 waves in wave C. Charts remain bullish. Sell Short taken pure based on pattern, and wave count. Hold trailer for bigger retracement if so desired. Otherwise should be good for scalp.

Update at 13:46 EST: Double bottom off 1344.50 for a long entry. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish. Long entry should tgt the .618 fib at 1346.50ish.

Update at 14:03 EST: .618 fib tgt hit. Bearish gartley butterfly pattern for a sell short. Higher risk trade as higher timeframes remain bullish. 60min chart still in extremes.

Update at 14:12 EST: Sell double top.

Update at 14:30 EST: 5 waves down into 1.27 fib level. Candle reversal pattern and buy pattern set up off both the 8min and 6000V charts, so expect some kind of retracement. Mixed signals now, so probably stuck in range or wave 4. IF wave 4, the key is to identify the end of wave 4 for higher. So far we have abc into 1343.75 low for a buy for the potential to make a higher high.

Update at 14:55 EST: Another double top sell short.