ES #F 092906 Quarter End, Month End

Globex overnite found support at 1346.50. Now 5 waves up into double top at 1350.50. Daily chart remains bullish, as do the 120min and 60min charts currently. A lot of traders are looking for 1356.00 higher tgt. Sell short with tight stop for low risk trade. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for abc 3 wave pattern into .618 fib or 1345.75 to 1346.00ish.

Update at 09:48 EST: Gap closed. Next up is 1346.00 ish.

Update at 09:54 EST: 1346.00 tgt hit; Possible we can go lower to 1344.75 ish. After the .618 fib level, usually the market retraces back to the previous .382 level. In fact, it went to the .618 fib. Higher highs is expected, once wave 4 is complete.

Update at 10:07 EST: 5 waves into .786 fib at 1349.50 making a bearish gartley butterfly pattern.

Update at 10:31 EST: support off .707 at 1347.00. Long entry for upside higher high tgt. It is looking more and more like a congestive/consolidation wave. The trick is to determine when the support or the low has been put in. This is the end of the quarter, and also month end. Mixed signals thus far -- 60min says to sell the highs, and the lower timeframe charts say to buy the lows. Moving averages are flat.

Update at 10:38 EST: Reversed out of the long and went short, based on the Tick and 6000V chart and price action. .786 fib for bearish gartley butterfly hit; So far we have 3 waves in this consolidation range. Look for signs that 1346.00 low will hold to enter long.

Update at 10:57 EST: While it looks like the 1346.00 low will hold, the 60min chart is still more bearish than bullish. Looks bearish; will hold shorts for now.

Update at 11:30 EST: Double bottom off 1346.00.

Update at 12:51 EST: Possible wave 4 type of pattern. Sell short against the 1349.00 high for lower low, even if by 1 tick.

Update at 13:30 EST: possible wave 5 into GL; long pattern setup for higher highs? 120min nd 60min still bearish looking. Alternate count is that we have possible 5 waves in a wave b. Lower lows to come if this is the case.

Update at 14: 05 EST: higher timeframe charts remain bearish.

Update at 15:12 EST: Finally a lower low made. No strong buy pattern yet. Possible lower lows still. Looking for .786 fib at 1344.75 ish. I have downside targets all the way down to test of 1340 LIS.

Update at 16:05 EST: 1344.75 tgt hit.