ES #F 092706

Possible 5 waves up into 1.618 fib and GH of 1348.75. Both the 8min and 6000V charts are in position for a sell short pattern. Look for bigger retracement. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for an abc retracement to the .618 fib of the range .... or 1332.00ish (this is important LIS) to 1331.75.

Update at 09:13 EST: 1343.25 is short term support - it is both a .50 fib and a 1.27 fib as well as a prior LIS for a small PRZ. 120min chart remains bearish and IF we continue downwards, THEN a sell pattern will be triggered for further downside activity this morning. IF the 1343.25 low holds, THEN I will look for gap close at 1346.75, which also happens to be a .618 fib level.

Update at 09:45 EST: Gap is now closed; possible higher high before day is out.

Update at 10:01 EST: 5 waves up into 1350.00 and 1.27 fib level. So expect pullback to .618 fib or 1345.75.

Update at 10:17 EST: .618 fib tgt hit. Possible bigger pullback here. Support at OP for JOT long entry.

Update at 10:33 EST: Upside tgts(s) for the JOT long entry are: test of 1350.00 high, 1351.25, 1352 ish, 1353ish, 1358ish.

Update at 10:39 EST: Sell test of 1350.00 high; usually the first time it tests is a good trade entry. Look for test of the 1343.25 low. Scalping is a good idea here, as we have mixed signals.
Just follow the signals as they present themselves on both the 8min and the 6000V charts (especially when they both tell me the same thing). Okay, we have just tested a prior low at 1345.00 and OP.

Update at 10:53 EST: We tested the 1343.25 low, coming to within 1 point of it. It was also 5 waves down into the 1344.25 low. We appear to be stuck in a wave 4 type congestion/consolidation range/wave. The key is to find the "end" of it, for further upside. So far, the 1343.25 is the current support for any longs.

Update at 11:26 EST: Looking for higher highs from here.

Update at 12:05 EST: Possible 5 waves up into new high of 1350.25 - look for pullback to .618 fib at 1346.50 ish.

Update at 12:30 EST: .618 tgt hit; Possible lower to come, as there is no buy signal as of yet.

Update at 12:51 EST: Have long signal off 6000V chart for up. Initial tgt is test of 1350.25 high.

Update at 13:12 EST: 1349.75 is test of high and also a .886 fib level. abc into that for wave b; now down for wave c. Higher timeframe charts more bearish now. Lower lows to come.

Update at 13:37 EST: abc into .707 fib for support. Looks like another wave 4 type pattern -- which means we should get higher highs. However, this does not jive with the 15min and 30min charts, which have sell patterns in place. So, possible that we are going to make 5 waves down first before larger retrace?

Update at 14:18 EST: 5 waves down into .786 fib now at 1345.50. Still bearish for now, holding sell short until get buy signal off higher timeframe charts.

Update at 15:12 EST: 5 waves down into 1343.00. Expect some retracement to the .618 fib of move down, or 1347.50.

Update at 15:44 EST: .618 fib tgt hit.