Tuesday, September 19, 2006

ES #F 091906 Wave 4 and Wave 5 into Test of support

Market found support overnight at the .618 fib area of 1327.50. Sharp pullback off that GL support into a .707 fib at 1334.00. Short term resistance now at 1334.00 for a retrace to test the low at 1327.50. IF we have 5 waves up off 1327.50 THEN look for abc type of correction into the .618 of move up .... or 1330.00 ish -- to double bottom at 1327.50. We continue to have mixed signals -- lower timeframe charts are ready for a pullback while higher timeframe charts remain bullish.

Update at 09:02 EST: Market finds resistance at 13334.50, which was a prior resistance level.

Update at 09:39 EST: .618 fib target hit. Look for lower still. 3 points made on this move down. abc pattern into .618 level, making a bullish gartley butterfly pattern. 15min, 30min charts remain bearish for now, so longs are more risky, so scalp opportunity only if longs are taken.

Update at 09:57 EST: resistance at .382 fib level and 34ema on 6000V chart, making for a 5034 JOT entry sell short. Looking for the following downside targets: 1329.25, 1329.00, test of 1327.50, 1326 ish, 1325.75ish and test of the low at 1324.50 and then lower if remains bearish.

Update at 10:03 EST: short term double bottom; mixed signals still -- shorter timeframe charts say we could bounce . Could be shallow retracement, so watching carefully. It could go either way.

Update at 10:25 EST: .786 fib at 1329.00 target hit. Possible 5 waves down into this level. IF this is a wave 4, THEN we could be stuck in this range ( 1334.50 to 1327.50) for remainder of the day -- so scalping opportunities with buying support and selling resistance. IF this is a wave 4, THEN expect a lower low for wave 5 to complete eventually. 30min chart shows no buy signal as of yet. The .786 fib level here sets up a bulllish butterfly buy pattern and signal. Upside targets: 1332.25, 1332.75, 1336.25 (OP), 1334.25 gap close. Expect today's high to hold for lower lows.

Update at 12:10 EST: ... and lower we go; 1325.50ish target hit. Still more to come.

Update at 12:31 EST: 1.618 target hit at 1323.25 -- Let's see if there are enough bulls to try to take this up for a retracement. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish with no confirmed buy signal in place.

Update at 13:05 EST: Charts remain bearish, probably range for a bit before lower.

Update at 13:57 EST: Market has found support off 1322.75, or test of 1322.50 low. LIS is the current s/r at 1324.50. We need to clear this before the market can go any higher. 8min and 15min charts both have buy signals/patterns triggered. May not get very far, as the 120min remains very bearish; watching carefully.

Update at 14: 05 EST: Potential 5 waves down into the test of prior support at 1322.50. Looking for buyers to take this up now into the close. Upside targets for this move up are: 1330.00 to 1332.00 LIS test. .618 fib is at 1331.50ish.

Update at 15:54 EST: First upside target at 1330.00 hit; More upside is possible.

Update at 16:15 EST: Last upside target hit (.618 fib)

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