ES #F 091106 Remembering 9/11

Market traded down into 1303 prior support during overnite globex trading. The Daily chart looks bearish, and intraday charts have mixed signals thus far. Higher timeframes have buy signals triggered, and no sell patterns as of yet off the 1303.00 support. The 1303.00 was a PRZ as it was both a 1.27 fib and a .786 fib, making it a bullish gartley butterfly pattern for the retracement move up this morning.

Update at 09:38 EST: Resistance at prior LIS of 1307.75 with a double top. This is also a .50 fib retracement level. 1307.75 is also at th 34ema on 60min chart. Low risk JOT sell short entry. Target will be test of low and possibly lower. Potential trending day down based on what I see off the daily chart. The daily chart shows that 1303.00 happens to be right at the UTL in place. We are currently trading below the 1308 area, which is slightly bearish. The 1308 was where the current contract opened after rollover, and also happens to be near the 1307.75 LIS.

Update at 09:54 EST: Short term support at the .618 fib of 1304.75. This is a bullish gartley butterfly pattern long scalp opportunity, should one decide to take a countertrend trade. IF one believes that the trend will be up from here, THEN that would have been a good entry long. However, the daily chart shows more bearishness than bullishness. The 60min chart shows that the 1303.00 is a potential bottom. Watching carefully.

Update at 10:00 EST: 60min and 120min chart shows that the LPT is for up for now. We could be stuck in this range for a bit. So long as the 1307.75 holds, we will go down.

Update at 13:30 EST: Downside targets are: 1302.75 gap, 1300, 1297.75 test, 12962, 1288.76, 1283.25, and lower.

Update at 10:54 EST: Lower gap at 1302.75 filled. Possible 5 waves down, so due for retracement. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish; we may only get a shallow retracement.

Update at 11:23 EST: Small .618 fib retracement of last small 5 waves down complete. This gives small abc bearish butterfly pattern. Mixed signals still. Higher timeframe charts have buy pattern in place, and no sell pattern as of yet.

Update at 12:32 EST: Current resistance at .786 fib, .886 fib and 1.618 for a small PRZ. Higher timeframes have no sell in place as of yet. Continue to have mixed signals, so could be ranging for a bit. 120min chart remains bullish for now. Looking for 1314.50 gap fill and possibly higher. if 1314.00 resistance is broken.

The low at 1300.25 was tested, finding support at 1302.50. Now we have climbed back over 1307.75 to 1308 all important LIS. We have had 3 waves now in this congestion range. Do we break out to new highs from here, or is there more retracement to be had after we close the 1314.50 gap.

Update at 13:28 EST: 1314.50 gap closed. 1314.50 is also a 1.414 fib level. Market remains bullish.

Update at 13:45 EST: 5 waves in wave 5? .886 fib is at 1314.75 and it is also a 1.414 fib. Let's see if we get a deeper retracement or not.

Update at 14:35 EST: ... and down we go. IF we have 5 waves up THEN I will be looking for .618 to .786 fib as initial downside targets for this move down.

Update at 15:02 EST: Continues to look bearish.