Wednesday, September 13, 2006

ES #F 091306 Bears Got Crushed Today

Market traded lower overnite to find support at globex low of 323.25. It made a clear 5 waves down into GL support. The daily chart remains bullish, as does the 120min and 60min charts -- we are trading well above the 34ema and also above the 8ema. IF we continue up, THEN the upside targets I will be looking for a reversal sell short pattern are: 1327.00, 1327.50, 1328.00 ish and test of old contract high of 1331.25. IF we pullback today, THEN I will be looking for a test of old resistance at 1316.75, which is now an important LIS.

Also have to keep in mind, this is Options Expiration Week.

Update at 08:45 EST: small .618 fib target hit with double top for a good sell short entry with small risk. This makes for a bearish gartley butterfly pattern.

Update at 09:30 EST: butterfly target of 1.27 fib hit, and market found support at 1322.25 for nice bounce back up -- lets see if we can close the gap at 1325.00.

Update at 09:42 EST: upside target of gap at 1325.00 closed. New upside target is 1327.25 to 1327.50 ish to 1328.75. Needs to clear 1326.25 first before higher, so looking for test of yesterday's high before higher.

Update at 09:50 EST: Sell short against the high of 1326.75 good low risk entry. Downside targets: OP, test of GL, 1321.25, 1321.75 ish, 1320, 1319.25 ish. We are stuck in a narrow range for the time being -- buy support, sell resistance.

Update at 10:27 EST: Mixed signals indicating we continue to be stuck in same range. Higher timeframe charts remain slightly bullish, however, lower timeframe charts show weakness.

Update at 10:45 EST: We made a .886 fib retracement and test of low. IF this is wave 4, THEN we should go higher for wave 5 to complete a higher high. The test of the low gave a low risk entry long. So far, we have made an abc 3 wave pattern within the current range.

Update at 12:06 EST: 1327.50ish target hit; market remains bullish. 60min chart has no sell as of yet. 8min and 6000V both say pullback time here

Update at 13:30 EST: 5 waves down into .382 fib at 1327.00. Enter long for retrace and possible higher.

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