ES #F 091406 Retracement time

Now that the market has made a higher high into 1332.00, it has pulled back hard. 120min chart has a confirmed sell signal. Looking for a .618 fib level of yesterday's range, or 1326.00 and lower. So far, we have made a 3 wave pattern down before we ran back up to re-test the 1332 high, and now we are impulsing down thru the last s/r or LIS at 1326.25. Expect some stalling out here at the LIS or 1326.25 level.

Update at 09:33 EST: Support with GL at 1325.50 with buy signals off both the 8min and 6000V chart. Looking for retracement to try to close the gap at 1329.00.

Update at 09:39 EST: 120min and 60min are both bearish still. With mixed signals, we could be ranging for a bit before lower.

Update at 10:00 EST: Downside targets for today: 1326, 1324.50, 1323.50, test of 1322.25, 1321.50ish.

Update at 10:09 EST: s/t support at the .707 fib level of 1325.00. I count 5 waves down into the .707 fib level support. Expect some kind of retracement now, with both the 8min and 6000V chart in position to trigger buy pattern. Shorter term timeframes say we retrace, however longer term timeframe charts remain bearish. Market waiting for the Energy Report to come out.

Update at 10:30 EST: Backend support now at 1325.50. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish. We also made a 3 wave pattern into resistance at the .382 level of 1327.75. Looks congestive and more down is likely. The 60min chart is keeping me in short.

Update at 10:52 EST: downside target of 1324.50 hit. It is a .786 fib level of yesterday's range.
We now have a possible abc pattern into .786 fib level, with wave c having 5 waves. Let's see if the low at 1324.50 will hold or not. IF it hold, THEN it is a buy area for bigger retracement of last move down from 1332.00 high.

Update at 11:06 EST: Market trying to remain above the 1326.25 LIS and OP at 1326.75. 120min and 60min charts remain bearish with no confirmed buy pattern triggered. However, I expect the 1324.50 low to hold, and market to retrace, with possibility of gap fill now, since that is the .618 fib level (1329.00). The .786 fib support provides us with a bullish gartley butterfly pattern.

Update at 14:17 EST: market remains bullish; upside targets: 1326.00, 1329.75, 1330.25ish, 1331.00, test of 1332.00 high and possibly higher. The 120min chart had a 5034 JOT long off the 1324.50 low.

Update at 14:31 EST: Gap at 1329.00 finally closed; We now have bearish gartley butterfly, for another retracement, especially since we made 5 small waves up into the 1329.50 high. 120min still slightly bearish.

Update at14:43 EST: Support at another small .786 (which also happens to be the 1326.25 important LIS) for bounce back up. Let's see if 1329.50 becomes resistance or not. IF it is resistence, THEN look for lower lows.

Update at 14:55 EST: 120min chart has no buy signal. 1326.25 LIS is support for now. IF this breaks, THEN look for lower lows. The 120min chart should keep me short for now.

Update at 15:07 EST: s/t support off .786 at 1325.50 globex low. Since we had 3 waves up into 1329.50, I expect we shall make lower low. The move up into 1329.50 was a 3 wave pattern and a 1:1 price projection pattern. Trading below the OP and below the LIS of 1326.25 now. However, the 3 wave move down to .786 fib level now is a bullish gartley butterfly pattern. Let's see how far this will go -- it could go re-test the high at 1329.50, but not likely given the 120min chart -- we shall see.

Update at 15:56 EST: Another successful bullish gartley butterfly pattern into .707 fib resistance. Continue to have mixed signals, and now the 60min has a confirmed buy signal. Short covering now into the close.