ES #F 092106 Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan

Overnite support found at 1335.00 for a move up to higher high at 1340.00. A sell short against this is a good low risk entry. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish, but look ready to trigger sell short patterns. Watching lower timeframe charts for change in momentum. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for .618 retracement at 1335.25 for this sell short trade.

Update at 10:01 EST: Target hit at 1335.25 (.618 fib). No buy signal as of yet; looking for lower still. 120min chart and day session only chart both say more downside still (no buy signal as of yet).

Update at 10:09 EST: 1333.50 is a .382 fib level for a pause. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish.

Update at 10:27 EST: Possible 5 waves downinto support at 1332.75. IF 5 waves down into support, THEN look for abc retracement to the .618 fib level or 1337.25 in this case. This also happens to be in area of day's OP. Mixed signals currently, so stuck in range for now.

Update at 10:40 EST: 1335.75 is a .382 fib level for short term resistance. IF this is a wave 4 congestion area, this would be a good area to enter a sell short, with the expectation that wave 5 and a lower low will follow. Only concern is that the 8min chart is in the wrong position -- it tells me that the trade is high risk, as the 8min tells me that more upside is possible.

Update at 10:55 EST: 1337.00 is close enough to the .618 (1337.23) for a conservative exit. For the aggressive trade, one can hold long, so long as the 1332.75 low is not broken. The 15min chart says we have more potential upside.

Update at 11:03 EST: OP and .618 target hit. Remains bullish for the moment.

Update at 11:08 EST: 1338.50 and .786 fib target hit. Good sell short entry here, just based on butterfly pattern alone. Both the 8min and 6000V charts are in position to trigger sell patterns. However, both the 15 and 30min charts still in buy mode.

Update at 11:23 EST: 1339.00 is .886 fib level. Sell short against this high for .618 fib target or 1335.25ish. IF it remains bearish, THEN targe the .786 fib and test of low.

Update at 12:30 EST: Downside targets hit; remains bearish and holding for lower, or until I see a good buy signal off 30min chart. Next downside target is possible gap close at 1330.50 - then 1329.50 ish.

Update at 12:53 EST: 1330.50 gap finally closed. Still bearish though.

Update at 13:05 EST: .618 target at 1329.50 hit; holding for lower still. Next downside target to watch for is 1326.25 ish.

Update at 14:07 EST: If this is wave 4, then lower low first tgt to watch for is 1327.50 ish before the 1326.25 ish lower tgt.

Update at 14:35 EST: 1327.75 is a .707 fib level. Short term support here. Close enough to my 1327.50ish target. Strong PRZ here: .707 fib is 1327.75, 1.27 fib at 1327.50ish and 1.618 fib at 1327.50. While the higher timeframe charts remain bearish, we do have a potential 5 waves pattern down into a strong PRZ. Conservative exit here at support and aggressive trades can be held until close, with trailing stop. Next downside tgt is the 1326.50 ish area.

Update at 15:13 EST: 1326.50 target hit! Still bearish. IF it remains bearish, THEN next downside targets to look out for are: test of 1324.50 previous support and then test of the 1322.75 previous support. We should be finding support soon for a bigger retracement.

Update at 15:18 EST: 1326.00 is a 1.618 fib level.