Trend Day Down

Still no buy signal in sight off the higher timeframe charts. 8min SAR shows no reversal as of yet. Initial target is 1277.00 to 1272.25.

We are developing divergence on this last move down into 1278.00 low. Possible bounce for profit taking.

The 15min. chart gave a warning of a big move up off the 1278.00 low. Good place to exit any longs.

Waves of 3's

ES #F is making waves with 3 waves within the waves as it slowly drifts down. Higher timeframe charts show waning momentum. The titanic principle in action here. The higher timeframe charts have trigged sell patterns. Candles are bearish looking. If short, patience is needed to hold this for lower.

We have possible 4 waves down. So, will be looking for lower low, then a retracement, since next leg down means we have 5 waves down.

Wave 5 targeted 1.27 at 1288.50. Lets see if we can bounce from here. Since we have had 5 corrective waves down, I am looking for the possibility of an abc into .618 retracement level before we continue downwards. Higher timeframes do not have a buy pattern, so there is still downside momentum in the charts. So, if short from a good level, one can continue to hold to ride this trend down.

Is today a key reversal day?

Market closed the gap and found s/t support at the .886 fib off the 8min chart. How far will it go? Watching support and resistance and candle patterns for signs of direction. The SAR on 8min says we still can go down from here. However, there will be profit-taking on the way down.

We seem to have picked up momentum for this move down. Could this be a wave C that we are in?

8min chart shows doji and bottoming tails into the LBB with divergence. Watch for potential bigger retrace off this level. 60min chart still bearish, so I will be looking for potential JOT sell patterns higher up.

The 60min chart is keeping me in a short longer term, as there is no buy signal in sight.

Double Top ES #F 080306

The 8min showed a good sell opportunity off the 8min chart. Watching for shamu to take us lower. Lets see if we get it.

We are in a new wave now .... so is it a wave 4 for higher? or a bigger retracement wave for lower? Watching higher timeframe patterns closely for the market to tip its hand as to which way it wants to go.

There are signs of weakness in the shorter timeframe charts currently. So any shorts from higher up could be held for lower.

Remembering what I was taught about market structure, I always expect some kind of retracement after either 3 waves or 5 waves. So, I can use this to my advantage to anticipate and stand ready for JOT (Jump on Trend) entries.

Today can be a potential trend day down based on the higher timeframe chart patterns that I see.

IF I catch a JOT entry early enough, I can hold it for much lower (trending day). However, if I am late to the party, THEN I must only try to scalp it. Whether I am early or late to the party is dictated by the pattern development off the higher timeframe charts, such as the 60min and 30min.

Knowing characteristics of Elliott Wave also helps me to determine potential targets. For example, Wave 3 is never the shortest wave .... so IF I see a big wave followed by a small wave, THEN I have to be aware that the smaller wave CANNOT be a wave 3, hence I should hold for lower (if short). Also, I have to keep in mind that waves can have extensions, so this is where higher timeframe pattern and momentum can help me decide whether to hold a position for longer or not.

Retracements into .382 fib

The market made a 3 wave abc wave pattern retracement into .382 fib level the range 1297.75 high to 1284.00 low. This is a possible wave 4 type corrective pattern and looking for higher highs this morning.

A good short sell entry would be selling a test of the 1297.75 high. If nothing else, it would be a good scalp opportunity for 1 point, given the range expansion that we have had. One can trade multiples, and hold 1 for the "homerun" just in case the 1297.75 is indeed the high for this range.

So these are the 2 possible trade possibilities for this morning. I will be looking for the first pattern opportunity off the 8min chart.

ES #F 080406

The market tested the 1284.00 low overnite. Once the 08:30 report came out, the market powered up to 1297.75.

The 6000V chart showed 5 waves down into 1284.00, followed by a .786 retrace and bearish butterfly pattern, that led to the test of 1284.00 low on globex overnite trading. The 120min chart showed strength, so it wasn't totally unexpected that we powered up over +10 pts once the report came out. But now we are seriously overbought with all indicators in overbought territory. What was unexpected was the action pre-market to higher highs. What does this 10 pt gap to the upside leave for regular trading once the floor opens? Only the market knows for sure.

Once again, identifying a congestion wave means that I need to be aware of the next leg up, and thus a breakout move. The trick is to find the end point for where the next wave ends. This is where looking at the momentum on a daily and 120min chart will help me to gauge potential upside targets for exits or profit taking.

I am finding that the SAG pattern can be a profitable scalping pattern on a smaller timeframe, and a good entry for a swing off a larger timeframe chart, if I can find it in time and enter into the trade at the "ends" of the range.

I am testing a new entry strategy: IF very bullish, THEN buy at/near the OP (open pivot); IF very bearish, THEN sell the OP.

ES #F 080306 Test of top

Market did in fact power higher into fib and test of 1288.25 high. This was done in a 3 wave abc pattern. Do we make a shallow pullback for higher, or do we drop from here? Watching all timeframes and candles for clues to direction. The SAR on the 8min chart indicates strong trend upwards for the moment.

5 waves up and time for retracement

ES made 5 waves into 1282.75 high off the morning low of 1274.75. Then market made a .618 retracement as expected. Charts are mixed right now... so we will probably be stuck in this range for a while. Once the .618 target is hit, we can look to see if mkt goes back to the previous .382 fib level at 1279.50 to 1279.75 area.

The 60min charts shows that 1274.75 low should hold. IF we retrace down to the lows, THEN I should be looking for a buy pattern to enter longs. Let's see if this works or not ... as with all trades, success or failure is based on probability, NOT certainty. The market can do anything at anytime.

ES #F 080306

Possible reversal pattern off the daily. Downside tgts: 1260.25 to 1253.00 ish as possible. Market opened down with almost a 10 pt gap from yesterday's close.

PRZ confluence

Confluence at the 1282.50 area for potential reversal here. It is both a.786 and a .886 fib level. 6000V shows divergence but higher timeframe charts do not show a reversal pattern as of yet. 8min chart still quite bullish looking. Price action is very strong to the upside. Pullbacks are shallow. 8min chart shows lots of daylight. Sometimes it takes a while for the charts to turn ... its like turning the titanic ... it will take time. 8min chart candles finally showing weakness at the PRZ level. First we had topping tails into the 1282.75, then doji for hesitation, then a red candle. Potential support at the .382 fib of 1280.75. Potential wave count is an ABC into .786 for butterfly type of pattern (off the 1270.25 low).

We found support a the OP, and no sell pattern off the 120min; the market powered up to test the 1286.00 high. Should go higher based on the daily chart.

ES #F 080206

Market looks like it has made a 5 wave pattern up into globex high of 1280.25 off yesterday's low at 1270.25. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN, I will look for a .618 fib retrace of 1274.00 or so. This will close the gap from yesterday. The daily chart is looking a little toppy, but it could still go higher after a retracement. Will be watching the higher timeframes for direction. Currently, we have mixed signals: 120min says some upside is possible, with lower timeframes showing weakness. Will be looking for signs of bottoming at / near the 1274.00 area today. Let's see how many bulls are out there today. If the upside is not yet done, then upside targets are: 1290.00 test, 1292.00, 1294.00 test, 1300.25 test, 1301.25, 1309.50ish.

ES #F 080106

The Daily ES #F chart looks like it has hit resistance with the 89sma ahead and the median line of Andrews Pitchfork. I count a possible 5 wave count up from the 1243.25 low, so we can expect a possible bigger pullback from the highs at 1286.00. I wil be looking for the gap fill below and possible further downside targets of: 1265.00 ish, 1259.75 and 1255.75 to 1252.50 before we can head higher. Markets never go up in a straight line, but always retraces. So, I will be looking for signs of either profit taking at the highs, or new selling to be initiated to take this market down lower. Was the move up last week simply window dressing for month end? Watching higher timeframe charts closely for clues.