ES #F 092906 Quarter End, Month End

Globex overnite found support at 1346.50. Now 5 waves up into double top at 1350.50. Daily chart remains bullish, as do the 120min and 60min charts currently. A lot of traders are looking for 1356.00 higher tgt. Sell short with tight stop for low risk trade. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for abc 3 wave pattern into .618 fib or 1345.75 to 1346.00ish.

Update at 09:48 EST: Gap closed. Next up is 1346.00 ish.

Update at 09:54 EST: 1346.00 tgt hit; Possible we can go lower to 1344.75 ish. After the .618 fib level, usually the market retraces back to the previous .382 level. In fact, it went to the .618 fib. Higher highs is expected, once wave 4 is complete.

Update at 10:07 EST: 5 waves into .786 fib at 1349.50 making a bearish gartley butterfly pattern.

Update at 10:31 EST: support off .707 at 1347.00. Long entry for upside higher high tgt. It is looking more and more like a congestive/consolidation wave. The trick is to determine when the support or the low has been put in. This is the end of the quarter, and also month end. Mixed signals thus far -- 60min says to sell the highs, and the lower timeframe charts say to buy the lows. Moving averages are flat.

Update at 10:38 EST: Reversed out of the long and went short, based on the Tick and 6000V chart and price action. .786 fib for bearish gartley butterfly hit; So far we have 3 waves in this consolidation range. Look for signs that 1346.00 low will hold to enter long.

Update at 10:57 EST: While it looks like the 1346.00 low will hold, the 60min chart is still more bearish than bullish. Looks bearish; will hold shorts for now.

Update at 11:30 EST: Double bottom off 1346.00.

Update at 12:51 EST: Possible wave 4 type of pattern. Sell short against the 1349.00 high for lower low, even if by 1 tick.

Update at 13:30 EST: possible wave 5 into GL; long pattern setup for higher highs? 120min nd 60min still bearish looking. Alternate count is that we have possible 5 waves in a wave b. Lower lows to come if this is the case.

Update at 14: 05 EST: higher timeframe charts remain bearish.

Update at 15:12 EST: Finally a lower low made. No strong buy pattern yet. Possible lower lows still. Looking for .786 fib at 1344.75 ish. I have downside targets all the way down to test of 1340 LIS.

Update at 16:05 EST: 1344.75 tgt hit.

ES #F 092806 Home on the Range

We have 5 waves up into 1349.27 resistance. It is also a .886 fib level. Sell short against this was good for a scalp once the 08:30 am report came out. Downside targets for this move down is the .618 fib at 1345.00. Let's see if we can get it.

Market is still a little bullish, with the expectation today that the dow would try to make a run for its prior high. So caution is key to find support and look for buyers to run this mkt higher.

Update at 09:32 EST: Early support off 1346.75 to test GH and 1350.25 high; Sell short with tight stop against the high is low risk entry trade for a scalp. Hold runners if any for the .618 to .786 fib level tgt.

Update at 09:51 EST: .618 fib tgt hit; Hold final runner for lower. Mixed signals so we could be stuck in this range for a bit. Reason for downside bias is the position of the 120min chart.

Update at 10:05 EST: Current support at a .707 fib level of 1345.00 for entry long scalp.

Update at 10:22 EST: Mixed signals currently. 6000V has sell signal in place for a pullback.

Update at 10:25 EST: abc 3 wave pattern into .618 making for bearish gartley butterfly. Sell short against 1348.25 high. Mixed patterns, so need patience and tight stops. Market is flat, so only for aggressive traders.

Update at 10:42 EST: .786 fib tgt hit - this is the usual tgt for butterflies. If this doesn't hold, then tgt the 1.27 fib at 1344.00 ish, which also happens to be in the area of a .786 fib of 1344.50.

Update at 10:47 EST: IF this is Wave C, look for 5 waves down into support for exit or reversal.

Update at 10:51 EST: .786 fib tgt at 1344.50 hit; We now have a possible bullish gartley butterfly, as we have an abc 3 wave pattern into .786 fib and also 1.27 fib of 1344.25. No buy pattern yet off 60min and 120min charts. Watch lower timeframe charts carefully for signs of support and reversal. Note that we also have perfect proportion. Only concern is the 60min which remains bearish, so need to watch carefully.

Update at 11:22 EST: Looking to be like a wave 4 consolidation wave, so expect higher high to complete wave 5 sometime.

Update at 11:30 EST: Resistance at old LIS of 1347.25 for a pullback.

Update at 12:07 EST: market remains very bearish, despite 5 waves down into test of 1343.00 low.

Update at 12:10 EST: Double bottom now at 1343.00 for long entry to test the highs and higher. Reason - 5 waves down into double bottom.

Update at 14:50 EST: Resistance and 5 waves up into 1349.50. This is also a .886 fib level. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for abc into .618 fib or 1345.50ish.

Update at 15:20 EST: Support off .382 fib level for upside movement. Long entry here, as this is a wave 4, and higher high is likely.

Update at 15:49 EST: 5 waves up into higher high by just 1 tick. High now at 1350.50. Sell short 1349.75 with 1 point stop.

ES #F 092706

Possible 5 waves up into 1.618 fib and GH of 1348.75. Both the 8min and 6000V charts are in position for a sell short pattern. Look for bigger retracement. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for an abc retracement to the .618 fib of the range .... or 1332.00ish (this is important LIS) to 1331.75.

Update at 09:13 EST: 1343.25 is short term support - it is both a .50 fib and a 1.27 fib as well as a prior LIS for a small PRZ. 120min chart remains bearish and IF we continue downwards, THEN a sell pattern will be triggered for further downside activity this morning. IF the 1343.25 low holds, THEN I will look for gap close at 1346.75, which also happens to be a .618 fib level.

Update at 09:45 EST: Gap is now closed; possible higher high before day is out.

Update at 10:01 EST: 5 waves up into 1350.00 and 1.27 fib level. So expect pullback to .618 fib or 1345.75.

Update at 10:17 EST: .618 fib tgt hit. Possible bigger pullback here. Support at OP for JOT long entry.

Update at 10:33 EST: Upside tgts(s) for the JOT long entry are: test of 1350.00 high, 1351.25, 1352 ish, 1353ish, 1358ish.

Update at 10:39 EST: Sell test of 1350.00 high; usually the first time it tests is a good trade entry. Look for test of the 1343.25 low. Scalping is a good idea here, as we have mixed signals.
Just follow the signals as they present themselves on both the 8min and the 6000V charts (especially when they both tell me the same thing). Okay, we have just tested a prior low at 1345.00 and OP.

Update at 10:53 EST: We tested the 1343.25 low, coming to within 1 point of it. It was also 5 waves down into the 1344.25 low. We appear to be stuck in a wave 4 type congestion/consolidation range/wave. The key is to find the "end" of it, for further upside. So far, the 1343.25 is the current support for any longs.

Update at 11:26 EST: Looking for higher highs from here.

Update at 12:05 EST: Possible 5 waves up into new high of 1350.25 - look for pullback to .618 fib at 1346.50 ish.

Update at 12:30 EST: .618 tgt hit; Possible lower to come, as there is no buy signal as of yet.

Update at 12:51 EST: Have long signal off 6000V chart for up. Initial tgt is test of 1350.25 high.

Update at 13:12 EST: 1349.75 is test of high and also a .886 fib level. abc into that for wave b; now down for wave c. Higher timeframe charts more bearish now. Lower lows to come.

Update at 13:37 EST: abc into .707 fib for support. Looks like another wave 4 type pattern -- which means we should get higher highs. However, this does not jive with the 15min and 30min charts, which have sell patterns in place. So, possible that we are going to make 5 waves down first before larger retrace?

Update at 14:18 EST: 5 waves down into .786 fib now at 1345.50. Still bearish for now, holding sell short until get buy signal off higher timeframe charts.

Update at 15:12 EST: 5 waves down into 1343.00. Expect some retracement to the .618 fib of move down, or 1347.50.

Update at 15:44 EST: .618 fib tgt hit.

ES #F 092606 The Bulls Have It

Market found support overnite at 1333.50. Charts currently look bullish. Expect that a new high is possible either today or by end of the week. 30 year bonds are rising, which means long term interest rates are falling.

Update at 09:01 EST: We could be stuck in this current range for a bit before we move higher (range high of 1340.00 and range low of 1321.00. Watching lower timeframe charts for early clue to direction. Lower timeframe charts currently show resistance at 1337.25 for a possible pullback here. A sell short is the first trade pattern of the morning that I see off both the 8min and 6000V chart at this time. IF the GL holds, THEN we can expect more upside to come.

Update at 09:37 EST: support at a small .618 fib of 1335.00 for bounce back up to test GH. This gives us an opportunity to take a JOT sell short trade, if one believes that the trend is down. However, a better sell short would be at the .618 fib to .786 fib ( higher at 1337.50 and 1338.50 ish)

Update at 09:40 EST: the small bullish gartley butterfly off 1335.00 was a good long entry JOT if one believed that the trend will be up.

Update at 09:58 EST: OP now as supportfor higher.

Update at 10:03 EST: Upside targets hit; expect higher highs eventually.

Update at 10:32 EST: Sell short entry now against 1343.25. I count 5 waves up into that level. IF we have 5 waves complete, THEN look for an abc correction into the .618 fib -- in this case, the initial downside target is 1337.25 (GL). The key is for yesterday's high, and important LIS of 1340.00 to be broken and become resistance before we can see more down.

Update at 10:55 EST: 1340.00 LIS is now support again for a run to test the high. The low at 1339.25 is now support and a good entry JOT long to test the high and possibly higher. Bears can use the run back up to enter sell short. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish, so we will either range, or go up.

Update at 11:14 EST: Sell short against first test of 1343.25 high is low risk entry for a scalp if nothing else. .786 fib tgt is 1340.00, which happens to be an important LIS. Need this to break to get to the eventual .618 fib target of 1337.25.

Update at 12:01 EST: 5 waves down into 1337.75, which is a 1.414 fib level. Expect retrace now of the 5 waves down. So far, we have had an abc 3 wave pattern (wave c has 5 waves) into 1337.75 support. This is a possible wave 4 for higher highs. 120min chart remains very bullish. Upside target(s): 1344.25, 1344.75, 1345.00ish, 1345.50, 1346.50ish.

Update at 12:31 EST: Sell pattern in place on both 8min and 6000V chart against 1342.75 high now. Cannot ignore the confluence of signals. The only question is ... how far will the pullback be ... very shallow, or very deep? Sell short until one sees a buy signal in place. Price action indicates bullishness, and 120min chart indicates lots of upside momentum need to be dissipated before markets can go down. Mixed signals, so probably range for a bit; this makes for good scalping opportunities.

Update at 12:48 EST: price action much more bearish now. Looking for re-test pf 1337.75 and lower now. Long topping tails off the 60min chart. Also I have a sell patterns either already triggered or getting ready to trigger with more downward move in price.

Update at 13:00 EST: Support off the .707 fib level of 1339.25, and 5 waves down into it - so expect some kind of retracement back to the .618 fib of small move down. .618 fib tgt hit. Mixed signals means it can go either way. Wave 4 in place -- is the abc wave 4 complete, and we continue up, or do we continue to extend? 120min and 60min continue to be bullish.

Update at 13:22 EST: Up it it..... looking for higher highs now, even it is just by 1 tick.

Update at 13:35 EST: Quick sell short against double top good for a scalp. We had abc 3 waves into the double top for a fast pullback. Could be wave B, so fast move down would be wave C. Both 8min and 6000V chart in position for sell.

Update at 13:48 EST: Support for further upside.

Update at 14:07 EST: 1344.75 is a 1.27 fib tgt. Still bullish; pullback possible wave 4, for 1 more higher high around the 1345.00 to 1346.00 ish.

Update at 14:35 EST: 5 waves up into 1.27 fib tgt of 1345.00 to 1345.25. Sell short with tight stop. Downside tgt will be the .618 of the last 5 waves up, or 1340.75 ish. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish, so we could have wave extension taking the market up higher; tight stop in place for the sell short. Upside tgts all the way up to 1358ish. Both 120min and 60min remain very bullish. A higher high is likely.

ES #F 092506 Month End and Quarter End Week

We have what looks to be 5 waves down into support at 1321.00, so I will be looking for a possible abc retracement pattern into the .618 of the range ( 1332.75). We have gapped up overnite. Currently, 1330.50 is resistance and it is a .500 fib retracement. Possible 5 waves up into this area. Sell short with 1 pt stop for limited risk. Slightly higher risk trade shorting from here, rather than waiting for the .618 fib target to be hit first. Downside target(s) would be the gap at 1326.00 and then lower. It is also possible that we are in a bigger wave 4, and if this is the case, we could be stuck in the current range for a bit before we see any movement.

Update at 09:15: Sell against the 1330.50 high was good for a scalp. If trading multiples, can hold runner(s) for the downside targets.

Update at 09:58 EST: 1327.00 current short term support - it is a .382 fib level and a .50 fib level for a small PRZ. Expect lower after some profit taking. Key level is to watch is the LIS at 1316.75.

Update at 10:00 EST: Gap closed. Next downside target(s): 1324.75, 1323.75, 1322.00 ish, test of 1321.00, and then possibly lower. Currently, 1325.75 is both a .50 fib and a .707 fib for a small PRZ. No buy signal yet off 60min chart.

Update at 10:39 EST: short term support at the .886 fib level of 1322.25. No buy signal in sight.

Update at 10:52 EST: 5 waves down into test of Friday's low at 1321.00. Expect some kind of retracement with profit-taking from short sellers, and potential buyers. Potential wave 4 consolidation/congestion before lower low to complete wave 5. Alternate wave count is that we are in a bigger wave 4 for higher.... so watching carefully.

Update at 11:11 EST: small 5 waves up into .50 fib or 1325.75 for profit-taking if long, and JOT sell short entry, if one believes in lower lows. Only concern is the 8min chart still says more upside to come. Possible upside target is still the .618 to .786 fib levels of 1332.75 and 1336.00 ish.

Update at 11:24 EST: 3 waves up into resistance. Watch for sell pattern. We have an abc 3 waves up into .707 fib.

Update at 12:06 EST: short term support off another .707 fib level. Continue to have mixed signals, so more dangerous to enter a trade. More upside is possible.

Update at 12:30 Confirmed buy signals of higher timeframe charts. Upside target(s) are: 1332.75 to 13360.00 ish as commented on above.

Update at 12:57 EST: Conservative target of 1332.75 hit; 13330.00 is a 1.27 fib for possible profit taking and deeper pullback; market has overbalanced, and so it is looking like a big wave 4 for higher highs eventually. 1334.75 resistance is at at .707 fib level, 1.27 and a 1.618 fib level for a stronger PRZ for pullback. This makes for a big bearish gartley butterfly pattern.

Update at 13:40 EST: IF this is a bearish gartley butterfly, THEN downside tgts to shoot for are: 1327.75, 1325.75, test of the 1321.00 low, and then the all important LIS of 1316.75. IF we find support here at the 1332.00 LIS, then look for test of top and possibly higher to 1336.00 ish target.

Update at 14:13 EST: 1336.00 ish tgt hit. Now we have 5 waves up into 1336.50. No sell in sight off higher timeframe charts. Since we have overbalanced, a higher high is likely.

Update at 15:22 EST: Double top at 1340.00; Daily session only now has 5 waves up into 1340.00. Sell short with tight stop just above the high of 1340.00 makes for a low risk entry. However, upside tgts could go as high as 1345.00 ish. Watching carefully. Sell short good for a scalp anyways. Trade 2 contracts, and exit 1 contract for 1 point -- then the worse that can happen now is a b/e trade if the last contract gets stopped out.