ES #F 102006

Globex high is currently at 1376.75 and globex low at 1372.50. The GH was at a .707 fib level.
Buy signal now off both the 8min and 6000V charts off the 1372.50 GL. We had 5 waves down into GL support. Expect to see retracement of the move down. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish for the time being. IF we continue lower, THEN I will be targeting the following: 1371.25, 1370.50, 1369.75, 1368.77, 1367.75 test, 1365.50ish, test of 1364.00 low, 1362.00 ish.

Update at 09:27 EST: .618 fib tgt hit; now at .707 fib level. Still room to go up, based on 30min and 60min charts. We now have a 3 wave pattern into fib level for a bearish gartley butterfly pattern. First tgt is the .618, then .786, then 1.27, 1.618 fib

Update at 09:37 EST: .618 and .786 fib tgts hit. We hit 1372.25, which is a .618 fib level. We now have a bigger abc 3 wave pattern making a bullish gartley butterfly. In any event, we had 5 small waves down, so expected some kind of retracement of the recent move down from 1375.50. Charts still show slight downside bias for the time being.

Update at 09:56 EST: Eventual tgt is 1367.75 ish, 1366.75, and then test of 1364.00 and then lower.

Update at 11:05 EST: 1373.25 is a .618 fib tgt; This makes for a bearish gartley butterfly pattern. Mixed signals still. 15min and 30min charts both say more upside is possible. We should get breakout out of this ever tightening range. The current move up off the 1369.75 low looks to be corrective in nature ..... so I would NOT be surprised if we continued downwards.

Update at 11:25 EST: Current resistance is at 1373.25. We could get 1 more higher high here, as i only count 3 waves up so far, so we could be in the process of completing wave 4. Candles indicate upside momentum now.

Update at 11:37 EST: Double top sell short against 1373.25, but higher timeframe charts still say up, so watching carefully, and holding tight stop.

Update at 12:10 EST: Continue to hold short for lower lows.

Update at 12:23 EST: Exit shorts and reverse long -- based on higher timeframe charts.

Update at 13:05 EST: 1374.25 is current resistance ... it is both a .786 fib and a .618 fib level. Look for retracement of the move up from 1369.75 low. 120min and 60min charts are still saying upside momentum is building. Watching carefully.

ES #F 101906 Butterflies Everywhere and Options Expiration

GL is at 1369.50, which is a .707 fib level. We had 5 waves up off yesterday's low of 1367.75 into GH of 1374.00. A sell short entry against that 1374.00 upon first test is good low risk entry trade. Only problem area is the 120min chart, which still shows some possible upside.

IF this is wave b, THEN we still need wave(s) c and possiblly d and e to complete a more complex wave 4. IF wave 3 is complete (off daily chart), THEN look for larger or deeper retracement for the end of wave 4.

Update at 09:25 EST: 3 points made on that sell short entry against 1374.00 high. Hold 1 runner for possible lower. Downside tgts: 1368.50, 1367.75 test, 1366.00ish, 1364.00 test, 1362.25, 1360 ish.

Update at 09:39 EST: abc 3 wave pattern into .786 fib level of 1369.00 for a retracement and profit-taking. Small wave c had 5 waves down to 1369.00 This makes for a bullish gartley pattern. IF this patten works, the 2 tgts are: 1373.00 and 1375.25 ish, and even 1377.50 ish (and a gap close at 1372.50 of course). 6000V chart shows buy pattern setting up to trigger.

Update at 09;59 EST: Resistance again at the 1372.0 LIS, which also happens to be a .618 fib level. Both 8min and 15min chart's have no sell pattern signal as of yet. Mixed signals thus far, which confirms that we are in chop. 8min says to look for gap to close at least.

Update at 10:04 EST: gap close tgt hit; Next is higher still.

Update at 10:25 EST: 1.27 fib tgt at 1375.50 hit. It is also a .618 fib tgt. This creates a bearish gartley butterfly for the sell short. It is a gartley type pattern since we have made a 3 wave pattern into the .618 fib level. However, market is still bullish. 1377.50ish tgt still possible. However, I was taught that after the .618 fib level is hit, look for retracement back to the previous .382 fib leve... which in this case is 1372.50 ish. We also have an overbalance situation in place.

Update at 10:37 EST: Market is tracing out 3 wave patterns everywhere. This move is could be end of wave b and beginning of wave c. Downside tgts now: 1370.75, 1369.50ish, 1368.75ish, 1367.75 test, 1365.75ish, 1364.00 test.

Update at 10:53 EST: Small .500 fib level here offering support at 1372.25. 34ema is flat, so that indicates congestion. Expect the high at 1375.50 to hold for the time being.

Update at 11:13 EST: 3 waves down into .707 fib level support at 1371.00. Mixed signals continue.

Update at 12:02 EST: 1370.75 tgt hit. 3 wave abc pattern down into support. Now we have a bullish gartley butterfly as we did a 3 wave pattern into a small .786 and bigger .618 fib level. Expect some kind of profit-taking and retracement before heading lower, as higher timeframe charts remain bearish.

Update at 12:52 EST: 1369.50 tgt hit; it is a .786 fib. We now have a bullish gartley butterfly pattern. Upside tgts: 1373.00, 1373.75ish, 1374.00, 1375.50, 1377.50ish.

Update at 13:45 EST: .618 fib level hit at 1373.00; sell pattern off both 8min and 6000V. Mixed signals, making it more difficult to determine true trend. Are we in a 5th wave diagonal triangle? We seem to be making a series of 3 wave patterns all over the place.

ES #F 101806 Another Day at the Office

Narrow trading during overnite globex. current support off 1370.50 with GH at 1373.75. We had 5 waves up into the GH. 1372.00 LIS now support. Looks like a wave 4 type of corrective wave developing. We have mixed signals currently. 120min chart has support off the 1372.00 with possibility of a little more upside

Update at 08:31 EST: GH now at 1376.50, which is a .886 fib level; sell short against that high, or on a pullback to find JOT sell short. Entered JOT ss at 1375.00 for a quick scalp trade. Sell short on first test of 1376.50 high for low risk trade. Reversed long as the higher timeframe charts are super bullish, and possible 1 more wave to come.

Update at 08:51 EST: As analyzed, one more wave made; now 1377.75 is GH. It is a 1.27 fib level. Sell short against the 1378.25 high for good low risk entry sell short. market bullish still. Sell short entry 1377.50 - either it works or it doesn't now. Higher timeframe charts much too bullish to be shorting. If I were still long, I would still be in.

Update at 09:32 EST: Reversed long on open. Upside tgts: 1382.00, 1384.00, 1387.00, 1388.75.

Update at 09:45 EST: possible 5 waves up into 1380.25. Sell pattern off both 8min and 6000V charts for exit of longs, and sell short for the retracement. We have a possible Wave B into higher high and now we drop hard for wave C. Signs of weakness into the 1380.25 top are seen on both the 60min chart (doji) and 30min chart (doji and shooting star).

Update at 10:01 EST: Short term support off .382 fib level and OP here. Let's see if we can bounce or not. IF we bounce, THEN expect a test of the current 1380.25 high. A clue that we might have just completed wave B is the corrective nature of the wave on its way up. Now the downside tgts: 1370.25, 1368.75, 1367.50, 1366ish, then test of 1364.00.

Update at 10:40 nEST: Right back to the 1372.00 LIS for support. So close to closing yesterday's gap. Possible 5 waves down into 1372.00, but still looks negative. Be on the lookout for wave extensions.

Update at 10:42 EST: gap is now closed; Remains bearish and expect downside tgts to be hit.

Update at 10:46 EST: .618 at 1370.25 hit; 1370.00 LIS now short term support. Usually after a .618 fib level has been hit, there will be profit taking, IF short from high above, THEN this is a very good area to take most of position off. Hold 1 trailer. Possible 5 waves down with wave extention in wave 5. Wave 3 looks to be the shortest here .... so watching carefully. Downside might not be done as of yet.

Update at 11:03 EST: market made a 3 wave pattern into .382 fib level of 1373.75. Mixed signals now, so more difficult to determine true trend. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish, so will continue to hold the last runner short. Stop moved to 1374.00. Market can go either way. We could still make a bigger abc 3 wave correction into the .618 (1376.25 ish) of the last move down from 1380.25. Watching carefully. Are we tracing out a complex flat wave 4 pattern here?

Update at 11:20 EST: stopped out of short. As always, trust my chart indicator. Both 8min and 6000V chart had buy signals off the 1370.00 low. Also have to remember that after the .618 fib level tgt is hit, expect a bigger retracement (most of the time).

Update at 11:26 EST: We have abc pattern into .50 flb level. Wave c has possible 5 waves up into resistance. Sell short with tight stop good low risk entry for the JOT sell short. Only concern is the 8min chart, which is NOT in alignment for the sell. Also, wave a had a 3 wave pattern look to it.

Update at 12:00 EST: 5 waves up into 1375.75 for a sell.

Update at 13:25 EST: Market continues to sell off; next downside tgt is the .786 fib at 1367.50ish.

Update at 13:37 EST: Support off 1367.75 1 tick shy of 1367.50. 1367.75 is both a 1.27 fib and 1.414 fib level as well. So good PRZ to exit shorts to bank profits. Hold 1 trailer for the buy signal off higher timeframe charts. Doesn't look like it is done yet. Possible wave 4 here, so lower low to make wave 5. Interest note: We now have an abc 3 wave pattern into a .786 fib level.... making a bullish gartley butterfly pattern. Let's see what happens to it; higher timeframe charts remain bearish (like yesterday).

Update at 14:01 EST: 3 wave pattern into .382 fib level of 1370.75 for a JOT ss entry. Only concern is the 8min minute chart, which is NOT giving me a sell signal (yet). Good for a scalp at least - made a small abc 3 wave pattern into .786 to make a bullish gartley butterfly pattern for the move back up to test the 1370.75 high. Looks and feels like more upside here is coming. The low at 1367.75 is holding for now.

Update at 14:26 EST: Bullish gartley butterfly working out after all. The clue was both the 8min and 15min charts .. both in position for buy pattern to be triggered.

Update at 14:34 EST: abc 3 wave pattern into 1373.75. Sell short against that resistance level. This is a possible wave 4 pattern here. The only concern is the 15min and 30min charts.... both say up. It is possible that the wave 4 flat has already completed. So we shall see.

The 15min chart says to stay long. Will probably get stopped out now.

Update at 15:06 EST: Wow, I did not get stopped out.

ES #F 101706 Big Wave 4?

Market sold off on overnite globex trading, finding support at a prior low of 1370.00. Gap is currently at 1376.00, so we have sold off 6 points from yesterday's close. Market should now retrace some of the move down. This is possibly wave 4 type of pattern forming. We have buy signals triggered off both the 8min and the 6000V charts.

We did an abc corrective pattern into 1372.75 which was yesterday's OP. Sell patterns on both tick and 6000V chart. Look for test of GL at 1370.00, which should provide a buy opportunity on first test for a quick scalp.

1372.00 LIS is important resistance. There is a sell opportunity against this 1372.00 LIS. We had 3 waves down in 1370.00, then a shallow abc wave into 1372.75, and now we go lower. Higher timeframe charts now bearish.

Update at 09:45 EST: 1370 LIS -- old support now becomes new resistance. IF this is a wave 4 off daily chart, THEN we can go a lot lower. Watch for wave extensions. Eventual downside tgts to watch for: 1368.00 test, 1367.25 test, 1363.25 test.

Update at 09:56 EST: 1367.75 now short term support. It is a small .382 fib level and also a 1.27 fib level. Possible 5 waves down from 1372.75 high. Long entry off this for low risk trade for a scalp initially. Higher timeframe charts remains bearish still.

Update at 10:18 EST: Market made a lower low by 1 tick; My buy long did not get stopped out. Possible 5 waves down, but wave 5 looks to be a little on the short side. 30min chart remains bearish. Look for JOT sell short on bounce.

Update at 10:35 EST: Market tested the LIS at 1367.25. It is also in area of a 1.618 fib level. We are currently now below the 1368.00 Lis (prior support becomes new resistance. Next tgt is the 1363.25 LIS and we also have a gap below at 1359.00 that remains to be filled.

Update at 10:45 EST: Buy signals off both 8min and 6000V for small retracement. Higher timeframes still say bearish.

Update at 11:06 EST: .618 fib level of last move up into 1378.25 high is at 1361.50 ish. We have a LIS at 1361.75 to contend with. It is also a 1.618 fib level as well. So good potential PRZ.

Update at 11:21 EST: 1365.25 is short term support. It is a 1.27 fib level and also a 1.618 fib level, for a small PRZ. Higher timeframes remain bearish. With this big move down in the markets, it has triggered a sell signal off the daily chart. The high has been put in for now. We retrace the move up now.

Update at 12:08 EST: Possible 5 waves down in last leg down into 1364.00 support. Looking for bigger retracement here. Upside tgts: 1368.00 LIS, 1369.50, 1371.00ish, 1372.00 LIS, 1372.75 (which is .618 fib level of total move down).

Update at 12:34 EST: 1368.00 LIS tgt hit; Looking for retracement back to test the 1364.00 low. IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for abc pattern into .618 fib level at 1365.50ish. Higher timeframe charts are bullish. The bias is to the upside, so any shorts are for scalps.

Update at 12:55 EST: price action bullish. 1369.50 tgt hit; We now have an abc pattern into 1369.75. Possible pullback here. Sell short against 1369.75 high for possible re-test of 1364.00 low. Mixed signals so far; Higher timeframe charts have had a buy pattern in place. Lower timeframe charts have a sell pattern in place. Support at the .382 fib level for an entry long.

Update at 14:05 EST: abc 3 wave pattern into 1370.75; sell short against this resistance for low risk entry. It is a .786 fib and also a 1.414 fib level also for a good PRZ. The sell short was based on bearish gartley butterfly pattern into the .786 fib level.

Update at 14:12 EST: Small .618 fib level hit. Can we go up from here? We have mixed signals. Will hold short as I have good entry. The only concern is that we could have wave extension for wave C ... so more upside if this happens. 30min Chart says to stay long.......
So long as the 1370.75 high holds, we can go down.

Update at 14:58 EST: 30min chart told the story. Market now retracing the range : 1378.25 high and 1364.00 low.

Update at 15:05 EST: .618 fib tgt at 1372.75 hit; It is also a 1.618 fib level. Good area for some profit-taking, and to enter sell short for the retracement. The only thing to be careful about is that the 60min chart has a confirmed buy pattern in place, but no sell pattern as of yet. The sell is based on the bearish gartley butterfly at the .618 fib level. So, either it works, or it doesn't. The 60min chart says that any shorts should be scalps for now. Next upside tgt to watch for is the .786 fib level at 1375.00 to 1375.25ish. Higher timeframes say upside momentum. Current key LIS is 1372.00. We also have a gap at 1376.00 to be filled.

Update at 15:26 EST: The butterfly did not work out; the lesson to be learned is to watch the higher timeframe charts to tell me whether or not to take it.

Update at 15:35 EST: We have either 3 or 5 waves up into 1374.50 resistance. Sell pattern on both 8min and 6000V. Evening star candle pattern off 6000V and shooting star off 8min chart.

ES #F 101606 Trade What I See NOT What I Think

Double top at 1374.75 for globex high. Sell short against this high for low risk trade. We have 3 waves down into 1370.00 from Friday afternoon trading. Then we had an abc 3 wave pattern into the double top at 1374.75. The only concern is the bullishness of the higher timeframe charts, so caution is key.

Update at 09:37 EST: Short term support off 1371.50 which is a .707 fib level. We are also at the 1372.00 LIS. Long signals off both 8min and 6000V charts. Still mixed signals, so key is to watch the lower timeframe charts for clues and for scalping. Market is making an attempt to close the gap at 1373.50. The 34ema is flat, so we know we are rangebound.

Update at 09:45 EST: Higher timeframe charts are in position to trigger sell patterns. Possible that wave 4 here is incomplete.

Update at 09:51 EST: Gap is closed. .786 fib level at 1374.00 is now resistance, and forms a bearish butterfly pattern, however the 8min chart looks bullish still with no sell pattern as of yet.

Update at 10:33 EST: 5 waves up into higher high of 1375.00. Sell short for pullback and retracement. IF 5 waves up, THEN look for abc into .618 of range ... or in this case, 1373.00 ish (OP is at 1372.75).

Update at 10:58 EST: 1373.00 tgt hit; buy signal off 6000V chart for test of high; watch 8min chart for shamu sell short as possible.

Update at 11:24 EST: Price action bullish; we are trading above OP; Higher timeframe charts remain bullish.

Update at 11:29 EST: Narrow range day thus far. Either sell short against 1375.00 high, or buy against the 1371.50 low. Bias is to the upside.

Update at 12:01 EST: Market looking to edge higher.

Update at 12:06 EST: Higher high into 1375.25. Possible 5 waves up into it. Sell short against this high for low risk trade entry. Once again, IF we have 5 waves up, THEN look for abc into .618 fib level or 1373.00 once again. However, need to keep in mind the higher timeframe momentum, and also, the fact that we can have wave extention.

Update at 12:29 EST: Buy pattern off both 8min and 6000V chart. Possible higher higher into 1376.00 ish. But first needs to take out the current high at 1375.25. For now, friday high of 1374.75 is important LIS.

Update at 12:51 EST: Sell short with test of 1375.25 high.

Update at 13:09 EST: Market too bullish for the sell short.

Update at 13:22 EST: 1376.25 current resistance. 1376.00 upside tgt hit (it was a 1.27 fib level). Higher timeframe charts remain bullish. 120min and 60min charts both remain extremely bullish.

Update at 14:55 EST: Sell against 1377.00 high.