ES #F 090806

The daily chart remains slightly bullish and in overbought territory. We seem to be stuck in a consolidation/congestion range. Is it a wave 5 triangle for more down, or is it a wave 4 for more up? We have mixed signals so far today. The 1308 zone is current support heading into today's trading day. The range is getting narrower and narrower; current range resistance is 1313.75 and support at 1305.00.

Update at 09:33 EST: OP at 1309. Let's see if we can get a gap close at 1307.50 early into the trading day.

Update at 10:06 EST: Gap at 1307.50 closed. More downside to come, and looking for test of 1305.00 low, then test of 1304.00 low.

Update at 10:16 EST: Bullish gartley butterfly with support hit at .786 fib or 1316.25. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish.

Update at 10:46 EST: The move up off the .786 fib was in a 3 wave pattern. Looks like more downside to come today, so long as 1311.00 resistance is not taken out. The usual targets for butterfly patterns: .618, .786, test of top, and 1.27 fib levels.

Update at 11:02 EST: .618 target at 1209.25 hit. Now this sets up a potential bearish gartley butterfly for a move down. Watching carefully. Higher timeframes now slightly more bullish, so it can go either way. The 60min chart contains a hammer at the current support level of 1306.25 (.786 fib level).

Update at 11:55 EST: Double top at the 1309.50 for another sell short entry. Looking for test of the 1306.25 low and possibly lower.

Update at 12:15 EST: market remains stuck in narrow range. Short term support at 1307.50 which is another .618 fib level. However, still looking for lower still. Can we break 1305? Only the market knows for sure.

Update at 12:26 EST: Small bullish butterfly pattern with short term support at .786 fib or 1307.00. Range is getting tighter and tigher.

Update at 12:51 EST: Potential 5 waves in a wave C type pattern. IF it is 5 waves, THEN look for possible move up.

Update at 14:00 EST: And up we go. Resistance at 1.27 fib -- 1312.50. It is also possible that we are forming 5 waves inside a Wave B; watching carefully. 8min and 6000V charts are in position to have sell patterns to be triggered for a good entry short.

Update at 14:30 EST: We remain stuck in same range; further extensions of waves within congestion area. No sell pattern as of yet on the 120min chart.

ES #F 090706 Full Moon

Today we trade the December contract. Globex high shot up to 1314.00 on globex open last night. So far, we have fallen to 1308.25 (yesterday's open) for the globex low. The daily chart looks toppy, but it could stay overbought for quite a while. Today we have the official full moon.
Currently we have mixed signals, although the higher timeframes remain bearish. We have a gap above at 1314.50 and also a gap below us at 1302.75.

Update at 09:38 EST: We have mixed signals at the open, which indicates tough time to trade. Bias is for more eventual down, however, it would be better if we could go up to close the higher gap first before falling. Currently the 8min and 6000V are in position for more down, but 15min and 30min are not in position yet -- they in fact have a buy pattern in place. So long as the high at 1314.00 holds, we have a shot of continuation lower.

Note: The new contract opened at the same area as the old contract yesterday.

Updatre at 10:22 EST: Short term support at .618 of move up at 1305.50. 15min and 30min charts remain bearish.

Update at 10:35 EST: Since we made a .618 retracement .... expect a move back to the previous .382 as possible. The .618 traces out a bullish gartley butterfly pattern. 120min and 60min show no buy pattern triggered as of yet.

Update at 10:51 EST: We made 5 waves down into 1304.00 prior support.

Update at 12:07 EST: .618 fib target hit for the move up. 1310.50 is the .618 fib is on the day sessioin only chart. This sets up a bearish gartley butterfly sell short. We continue to have mixed signals ... so we will probably continue to be stuck in this range. This is a potential larger wave 4, with a higher high than 1316.75 for completion of wave 5. Watching carefully. IF market continues up, THEN upside targets to watch for are: 1312, 1313.25, 1315ish, test of 1316.75 and then higher.

Update at 14:00 EST: Test of Globex high at 1314.00 for a double top now and a good sell short entry. Possible 5 waves up into the 1313.75 high and test of 1314.00 globex high. We blew out all the short stops on the way up. Now we can retrace the last move up.

Update at 14:52 EST: Market finding short term support at the OP, with possible 5 waves down into it.

ES #F 090606 Contract Rollover

Yesterday, we made a 5 wave pattern down into 1310.00 support; this was followed by 5 wave pattern up to test the 1316.75 high, where it found resistance, and is falling into a potential PRZ of 1308.25. 1308.25 is: .382 fib, .618 fib, and a 1.27 fib. There is also a small LIS at 1308.75, providing short term support. Charts remain bearish looking for the moment. Expect that we could close the gap below us at 1305.50.

IF we have 5 waves up from 1291.50 low, THEN I will look for an abc type pattern into .618 fib at 1301.50.

Update at 09:33 EST: Market opened weak. We do have a gap open, so there should be possibility of buyers to take this market up to try to close the gap. Watching closely. 8min and 6000V charts are in position for a move up; let's see if we get one or not. Price action much too weak.

Update at 09:53 EST: Waiting for 10:00 report to come out; 120min chart still bearish, as is the daily chart; possible 5 waves down now into 1306.75., and test of prior 1306.50 low.

Update at 10:50 EST: First downside target of 1305.50 hit.

Update at 13:06 EST: Market remains bearish, but no hard selling despite obvious downtrend. Contract rollover is this week. We also have a full moon today. Tigerwings also mentioned that the 7th of the month is a key day to remember.

Update at 13:21 EST: Support at 1304.25. Looking for a possible retracement now. Could be a shallow retracement; watching lower timeframe charts carefully. 8min, 15min and 30min charts have buy patterns set up for completion. Market found support at a .618 fib level, making a bullish butterfly pattern for this move up off the 1304.25 low.

Update at 13:39 EST: Walter Bressert is a cycle expert, and he put out a report "The Bull is Dead", calling for a double top on the DJIA coinciding with important cycle turns. 120min. chart remains bearish with no buy pattern triggered.

Update at 14:25 EST: Tested prior support at 1304.00 for a bigger retracement , but market remains bearish.

Update at 15:00 EST: Second downside target hit. Next downside target is 1299.25 then test of 1297.50 low. Eventual downside target(s): 1262.75, 1245.00, 1229.5 test.

Update at 15:23 EST: We have an important LIS at 1297.75 and a .382 fib level at 1296.00. This coincides with UTL also on the ES daily chart.