CSX Corp (CSX) Chart Analysis 081206

This is a stock that Jim Cramer mentioned on his Mad Money show. Cramer says that CSX is more a secular stock than a cyclical one.

Daily chart shows weakness having given up 21% of its value since the beginning of May of this year. Currently the 200sma is just below Friday's close of $58.93. Can we manage to climb back over the prior support level of $60.10? IF not, THEN it will become a LIS and "old support becomes new resistance". Any moves up in price must clear the 34ema for potential higher. IF it fails at the 34ema, THEN it becomes a "blue ice failure pattern" for more downside.

The weekly chart shows increasing weakness as price has now closed below the 34ema.

Monthly chart shows likelihood of more downside to come. We have currently fallen through prior LIS and visual at $62.50. IF we cannot climb back through the $62.50 level, THEN I will be looking for a lower drop in price.

Amgen (AMGN) Chart Analysis 081206

Daily chart looks like it wants to test the low at $63.52. It needs to hold for more upside. IF it breaks, THEN I will be looking for it to be resistance and for more downside to come.

We have a blue ice failure here on the weekly chart. Let's see if the low will hold or not.

Monthly chart shows that more downside on this stock is possible. IF the current low of $63.52 is broken, THEN downside targets are: $52.20ish, $47.10 ish, and even $42.61.

Nvidia (NVDA) Chart Analysis 081206

Bearish Gartley Butterfly type of pattern here. IF the high has been put in at $31.88, and we retrace the move up from $3.60 low, THEN the downside targets for this pattern are: $14.42, $11.91, and $9.68. I will be looking for sell pattern to trigger off the weekly chart to enter a sell short.

TGT (target) Chart Analysis for 081206

The weekly chart shows support at the $44.67 to $46 level. Long TGT with targets -- $50.50, $52.34, $54.15 to possibly $56.73 or so. Note: needs to clear $50.00 first before more upside is possible. At the $50.00 level, we have a LIS where "old support becomes new resistance. This would be a key level to watch.


Target found support for now off the prior LIS (line in the sand) and visual s/r at the $46.35 range. It looks like it wants to retrace the move down, to re-test the high at $60.00

$SPX Chart Analysis for 081206

The daily chart indicates weakness and possible more downside movement to re-test the current lows at the 1219 to 1224 level. Currently below the 200sma and the 89sma.

The weekly chart looks like it is caught in a trading range. The Indicator says that it could go either way.

The monthly chart indicates weakness and toppiness. Just waiting for the sell signal to trigger for verification of more downside to come.

ES #F 081106 Sell HIgh, Buy Low

The daily chart looks like further downside is possible today. The 120min and 60min charts both show topping action at yesterday's high of 1277.00. A short against the 1277.00 would provide limited risk for potential downside trending day today. IF we happen to be stuck in a wave 4 consolidation wave, THEN I will look for a higher high to enter a sell short entry, and the .618 fib level at 1278.25ish is a likely level of resistance.

Update at 09:38 EST: S/T support at .382 fib level and 1271.50. Potential retracement here. Charts remain bearish. Eventual downside targets for today: 1271.50, 1269.75, 1268.00, 1266.75, 1265.75, test of 1262.50 low and possibly lower to 1255.00 area. Gap is at 1275.50 and it is also a .707 fib level. Let's see if there are enough bulls to take the market up to fill the gap. Charts look bearish, so might not be able to fill the gap today.

Update at 10:03 EST: 1269.75 target hit. Potential support here. IF 5 waves down, THEN watch for retracement back up. Trend is still down, as I have no buy signal off the 120min and 60min charts. IF short from 1277.00 level high, THEN this is a good area to "take some off the table" and bank some profits, or trail a tight stop. Holding 1 car with trailing stop.

Update at 10:11 EST: We are currently trending, or impulsing. After an impulse move, there will likely be a congestion or consolidation move.

Update at 11:06 EST: Still stuck in congestive/consolidation range. Potential 5 waves down into support at 1269.25. IF we have 5 waves down, THEN watch for potential 3 wave retracement pattern into .618 fib at 1274.00 as possible. Watching lower timeframes for direction. Current resistance is at 1272.75 and we had a prior LIS at 1272.00. Still no buy signal off the 60 and 120min charts.

Update at 11:58 EST: Short term support with prior support level at 1268.25 (visual). Expect it to be broken.

Update at 12:02 EST: 1268.00 target hit; possible retracement here before continuation. We do have a current 3 wave pattern into the .618 level at 1268.00. Both the 120min and the 60min charts remain bearish for now. The daily chart remains bearish also. Watching lower timeframe charts for signs of retracement.

Update at 12:15 EST: After a move to the .618 fib retracement, one can look for potential move back to the previous .382 fib level, which in this case is 1271.50 ish. Let's see if there are enough bulls to take us up there. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish for now. Price action remains bearish also.

Update 12:40 EST: Long signals getting ready to be triggered off the 15min and 30min charts. Watching carefully.

Update 12:51 EST: Still bearish; looking for lower lows today if this keeps up.

Update at 13:02 EST: Divergence forming with this low at 1267.25 (a .786 fib of day session only chart). Let's see if there are enough bulls left to come out on a friday afternoon or not for a decent bounce. Higher timeframe charts remain bearish unless bulls come out and tip their hand. 1267.25 is also yesterday's open. So far, we have given back all of yesterday's gains. Not a good sign for the bulls. The key is the current low of 1262.50. Based on the daily chart, that will likely be broken. The question is, will it broken today, or next week?

Update at 13:28 EST: Another downside target hit -- 1265.75 is a .786 fib level. No buyers today on a friday afternoon. Can we take out 1262.50 today?

Update 13:57 EST: Market found some support at the .786 fib level for a nice bounce. Buy patterns triggered on 8min, 15min and 30min charts. Potential upside targets now: 1270.00, 1272.75; 1273.75, 1274.50. Potential congestion range wave 4 before lower. The reason I think this might be possible is the position of the daily chart. Watching lower timeframe charts carefully for signs of resistance on this move up.

Update at 14:21 EST: lower timeframes bullish, so market wants to retrace the move down. The high at 1270.25 has now overbalanced indicating a new wave of next degree. Is this wave 4 for lower, or is this part of a bigger abc move higher? Watching the lower timeframe charts carefully. Given that today is friday, and the daily chart remains bearish, another test of the 1262.50 low is likely to be seen today.

Update at 15:24 EST: We are stuck in congestion/consolidation range, and near the lows for the day. Lower lows more likely than not. Unless the bulls like to make an entrance, and arrive late to the party.

Update at 15:33 EST: Slow grind up. Possible short covering into the close. 30min chart had a buy signal for this move up into the close.

ES #F 081006 Hook Trade

ES #F started falling after terrorist threats were made in London overnite. It found support at a prior level of 1262.50 before retracing. Old Support becomes new resistance at yesterday's low of 1268.25 making for a LIS. It was a perfect Hook trade entry sell short with small limited risk. Looking for lower lows and a possible trending day down as the ES #F daily chart is perfectly positioned for this. IF we retrace higher, THEN I will look for sell signal to enter sell short for lower lows until I see a buy pattern made on the daily chart.

Update at 9:36 EST: Market made slightly higher high to complete 5 waves up. Now it can pullback. Looking for eventual lower low today. So far, we have made a 3 wave pattern into 1270.00 high. The 3rd wave had 5 waves. After 5 waves, I usually look for a pullback and that is exactly what we had, making a .618 fib retrace before finding s/t support. So, do we range for a small wave 4 to go higher, or is 1270.00 the end of a big Wave 4 for lower? So far, the 8min chart tells me we go lower. I have to remember the daily chart says down.

Update at 10: 02 EST: Nice Double top for low risk entry sell short.

Update at 9:52 EST: IF we are in a smaller degree Wave 4 pattern, THEN a higher high will make 5 waves. Price action is a little positive, and mkt might be wanting to look to close the gap. However, it needs to break the current of high of 1270.00 before it can go higher. So far, the pullback from 1270.00 has not overbalanced, so we are still in the same degree wave. The 60min and 120min charts are in position to have buy patterns trigger IF the market powers up above 1270.00.

Update at 10:22 EST: The charts are looking more bearish. The daily chart is in perfect position for further downside. So, it is possible that we can have a swift move down. Watching lower timeframe charts carefully. The range is getting narrower and narrower. So, do we break this range to the upside or to the downside?

Update at 10:30 EST: Market showing some strength at this point. IF 1270.00 breaks, we can go a lot higher, as that will trigger buy patterns of higher timeframes.

Update at 10:49 EST: Tough market to trade today. Very choppy. Scalpers market. 8min says down now. Have to be quick to grab a point or 2 in this market. 8min chart has shooting star for indecision. Can yesterday's low at 1268.25 hold as support for higher? The 60min chart says that is possible. 8min getting toppy. The key is to sell resistance and buy support. Resistance currently at 1270.50. Upside momentum building. We are trading above yesterday's low of 1268.25 for now. The key is for this to hold for the market to move higher. Upside targets now: 1272.25, to 1276.ish.

Update 11:09 EST: gap closed. Looking for more upside after pullback if we get one.

Update at 11:50 EST: Market pulled back sharply after finding resistance at 1273.50. This move up looks corrective. 60min and 120min charts both say no sell pattern as of yet. Market probably needs to go back up to test the high at 1273.50. For now, we have backend resistance at 1270.00 and support at yesterday's low at 1268.25.

Update at 12:05 EST: Bounce up to 1272.00 provided opportunity for a sell short entry, if one believes that the high has been put in. The sell is supported by 1) .707 fib level 2) doji on 6000V chart, and hanging man on 30min chart.

Update at 12:37 EST: 60min. chart and 120min chart still bullish. However, 1272.00 is big LIS. Old support is new resistance.

We are still below important moving averages on the higher timeframe charts.

Update at 2:14 EST: 1276 ish target hit. Looking for potential pullback.

Update at 15:14 EST: We did an ABC 3 wave move up into resistance at 1276.50 (.382 fib levels).

Where are the Bulls?

The daily charts for all the market indices have turned red and look quite bearish, at least for the short term.

The $COMP index closed below its 200 sma today, and near the low of the day's range. IF we cannot close above the 200sma by the end of the week, THEN I will be looking for continued downside selling pressure.

The $RUT index can't seem to climb above its 200 sma, and now has a "blue ice failure" pattern for further downside. The low of July 21st at 668.59 needs to hold for this market to continue up. The weekly chart shows the market is sitting right at the 89sma for support. IF that gets broken, look for that to be resistance.

The $NDX shows weakness, giving back all the gains of last week. The low at 1446.77 of July 18th needs to hold for this market to move up.

The $INDU is looking to go test the 200 sma, and the July 18th low at 10683.32.

The $SPX closed today below its 200sma. So far, the .382 fib level is current support together with the 34ema. We shall have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the bulls will come out to take this market higher, or whether they will stay on the sidelines and let the bears have a little fun.

ES #F 080906 Trade Analysis

The market gapped up and made a high at 1286.75 before pulling back. Looking for gap fill as possible for this morning, as the higher timeframe charts are getting toppy and weak. The gap fill at 1277.75 would make a .618 retracement of the move up from the 1272.00 low to the 1286.75 high of this morning. We had a nice CCI sell pattern from the 1286.75 for the sell short entry, and a ZLR for a JOT entry at the OP on a bounce. Market is bullish still, but that could be slowly eroded away today if the high at 1286.75 holds and we slowly make our way down.

Update at 10:10 EST: market found short term support off the 34ema 8min chart for now. Let's see if it will hold, as the 15min and 30min both show signs of weakness. Since we have weakness and backend resistance at 1283.75 for the time being, I am looking for a sell signal. ZLR with reverse divergence against backend resistance for a short sell JOT entry. A high risk entry because it is "in the middle" vs "the ends" of the range.

Update at 10:36 EST: successful JOT ss entry. Now we have a possible 5 wave pattern into .382 fib at 1281.25. Charts still look bearish, but stand ready for retracement before continuation down to fill gap. Since the entry was in the "middle" of the range, I would have to either scalp that trade, or hold a wider stop.

Update 10:51 EST: As expected, the market retraced after making 5 waves down into 1280.75. That made for a high probability trade scalp long if one were so inclined. Since we made 5 waves down, I will look for a good sell pattern after the market retraces the move down from 1286.75.
Let's see if the market can retrace to the .618 fib level at 1284.50, which also happens to be the OP for today. IF the market reaches the OP, THEN I will look for a sell pattern and JOT entry ss. Charts are showing mixed signals. However, the higher timeframe charts are getting toppy. IF we get weakness in the smaller timeframes, THEN that will make the higher timeframe charts more bearish. On the other hand, IF we show strength firming up on the smaller timeframes, that makes the higher timeframe charts more bullish, and hence a higher probability of breakout topside to higher highs.

Update at 11:12 EST: Market hit a .707 fib level, just past the OP of 1284.50. JOT sell entry with limited risk (1pt) . Not the best setup for a JOT trade entry, as we have mixed signals, but just working on probability for a pullback. Let's see if we can scalp this for 4 ticks. 120min chart shows potential upside. Tight stop on this short.

IF we are in fact in a wave 4 range, THEN the market can still power up to 1290.25 to 1294.75 and test of 1297.75 before falling back. I need to keep this in mind. Price action is bullish for the time being.

Update at 11:31 EST: Stopped out of the short for a 1 point loss.

Another Short entry here with test of top. Stopped out on short.

Momentum to the upside now. 1.27 fib target is 1288.25 and also a .618 fib level... so potential PRZ (potential reversal zone).

Update at 12:07 EST: OP is potential support here. May retrace here to test the high at 1288.25 The 8min is somewhat bearish for now. Odds are that the high is in for today. Can we close the gap today? Gap is 1277.75 and 1.414 fib level is at the same level. Higher timeframe charts show weakness now. IF we get further weakening of the shorter timeframes, THEN the higher timeframe charts will trigger their sell patterns. However, IF we have support here off the OP, THEN there is still chance for market to surge higher.

Update at 12:39 EST: Looking for a break of OP for further downside. Downside target for now is 1277.75.

Update at 12:50 EST: OP broken for successful short trade. Let's see if market finds support at the morning low of 1280.75 before further downside. Downside targets are: 1277.75, 1276.75, 1275.50, 1274.00, test of 1272.00 low.

Update at 13:35 EST: Higher timeframe charts continue to show bearishness. Short term support here at 1278.00, which is a .618 retracement of the move up from 1272.00 low. Watching for possible retracement before continuation lower.

Update at 14:00 EST: Higher timeframe charts remain bearish. Expect lower is possible. 8min chart looks like it wants to bounce.

Update at 14:12 EST: Mixed signals on charts. Higher timeframes have no buy signal as of yet.

Update at 15:03 EST: Downside targets met. Let's see if the 1272.00 will hold, and for how long. Daily chart has turned bearish and break of 1272.00 is likely. Questions is, will it happen today?
Market remains bearish. We are gathering momentum to the downside. 8min chart indicates that we are trending. No buy pattern in sight.

Update at 3:55 EST: Daily chart sell pattern triggered. We are currently trading below the 200 sma and closing below the 34ema. Pullback from 1297.75 has now overbalanced. Looking for further downside for the remainder of the week.

ES #F 080906

The daily chart shows that we have retraced to a .382 fib level. This pullback from 1297.75 high to 1272.00 low could be wave 4. IF this is a wave 4, THEN expect wave 5 to be higher high, with a target(s) of: 1302.25, 1304.50, 1309.25ish. The Daily chart has a bearish pattern that is getting ready to trigger. IF the market continues downwards, THEN the bearish pattern will be triggered and possible new lows. The key is to watch the higher timeframes tomorrow for clues as to which way the market wants to go -- up or down from here.

UPS Chart Update 080706

All short term targets for UPS met, as per analysis July 13, 2008. Longer term charts still remain bearish. Potential downside targets are: $62.69ish to $55.51 ish.

ES #F 080806 Just Another FED day .....

Market opened with a slight gap up and with mixed signals. Looking for a gap close and possible test of yesterday's low at 1277. Watching closely as we are still stuck in the same range as yesterday. We have a gap above at 1286 from Friday, and a gap below at 1282.25 from yesterday. IF 1285.75 holds, THEN I will be looking for a short sell to test the 1277.00 low.

IF we have a trending day down today, THEN I am targeting the 1272.25 and lower...... 1270.75, 1264.25, 1259.50, 1256.50, 1255.00 area. The reason I am slightly biased to the downside is the fact that the charts are giving me bearish signals.

Update at 10:08 EST: Price action slightly bullish on the short term charts. Looking for test of the Globex High and possibly the upside gap to be filled if this continues. Otherwise look for sell signal off the 1285.75 high.

Update at 11:40 EST: We made a 3 wave pattern into .786 fib level. Do we pull back from here? If so, by how much? Right now, we are hanging out around the OP, so let's see if there are enough bulls out there who want to come out and play.

1284.75 is both a .786 fib and a .382 fib level, so potential PRZ. Charts still showing mixed signals. Shorter term charts show slight bearishness at this point. Sell against the 1284.75 with a stop above that and hold for test of the lows.

Update at 12:37 EST: Price has fallen back below OP; looking more bearish now.

Update at 13:05 EST: We made a 3 wave pattern into globex low of 1281.75. Charts still showing mixed signals. Narrow range trading today. 120min chart still says slightly downside bias for now.

Update at 1:48 EST: Looking for test of 1277.00 low, 1275 ish, and possibly lower.

Update at 2:08 EST: 5 waves down into 1280.75. Look for possible bounce to .618 fib of 5 wave range.

Update at 2:26 EST: The market made a higher high which made for a good sell. Downside targets of 1277 test, 1275 test met before a bigger bounce. Let's see if market wants 1272.25 today or not.

Update at 3:35 EST: 1272.25 target hit. 60min. chart has no buy signal as of yet. Daily chart looking a lot more bearish. We are oversold, so a retracement is likely.

ES #F 080706 "What's most likely?"

The higher timeframe charts have now turned bearish. It is more likely we go sideways to down than up at this point.

The daily chart has made a higher high into 1297.75 and UBB with divergence. The 120min chart shows the market trading below the 34ema this morning and below OP. The 8min chart has been unable to close above the OP this morning. The 60min chart shows us trading below both the 34ema and the 89sma. We have been stuck in the range of the 1289.25 high and the 1278.00 low since the Sunday Globex trading session.

Mixed signals means sideways market and to use caution -- scalp mode only until we get the timeframes to lineup.

For now, the 60min CCI shows that 1278.50 low is support and that we could buy on test of that level. However, lower timeframe charts are bearish.

Are we in a wave 4 type of pattern? We are stuck in a trading range or congestion area. Either it will break up or break down. Shorter term says we will break down.

Downside targets are same as for friday: 1277.00 to 1272.25 range. However, IF this is a wave 4, THEN remember that we can be stuck in this range for a while -- so look for possible test of the 1278.50 low first before we go lower.

PLAN THE TRADE, TRADE THE PLAN!

Update at 12:00 EST: potential buy signal on 60min chart. It hasn't actually triggered yet though. We had a test of the 1278.00 low from Friday -- looking for possible gap close and higher to test of 1297.75 as possible if the buy signal 60min chart triggers. IF we are in a big picture Wave 4 for further upside, THEN upside targets are 1290 to 1293.50 range for next day or so. Since we have mixed signals, the key is to focus on the lower timeframe charts to give better clues as to eventual direction.

Update at 13:00 EST: We have been stuck in this trading range, making a series of 3 wave patterns. Overall tone of market is still slightly bearish.

Update 13:30 EST: There is a buy pattern off the 60min chart now. However, we have 5 waves up into 1283.75 so an abc into 618 would be expected as possible. 120min chart still bearish. Major indecision and still bearish tone to market.

Update 14:05 EST: .618 fib target hit; actually market found support at the .707 fib level. Overall tone is still bearish though. If short from 1283.75 high, then can hold for lower to target as posted above, and trailing a stop to protect profits in case the wave extension is not done yet. Reason I would hold 1 is because we have had 3 waves now in this congestion range. We have been unsuccessful in staying above the OP for very long. Definitely a scalper's market for trading today.

Update 15:07 EST: Target 1 at 1277.00 finally hit.

DWA Monthly Analysis 080706

Monthly chart clearly shows a lower low now. A 5 wave pattern can be clearly seen. The question is ... is wave 5 complete, or still in progress? Need to watch the weekly and daily charts closely for signs of buying activity for the retracement wave.

Weekly chart shows slight divergence and start of a new wave. But is it the start of the retracement of the entire 5 waves down ... or is it part of wave 5? Watching this very carefully.

We had a range expansion bar for friday's trading activity. The market gapped up at the open, and then fell fast to close at the lows for the day. Will the current low at $20.30 hold? Friday's price action indicates that a new wave is in progress.