ES #F 101306 Friday the 13th

High is currently at 1372.00 from yesterday. We made a 5 wave pattern down into support at 1368.00. The 5 waves down each had a 3 wave pattern. Currently we are in a congestion range. The key is to determine when the "end" has been made. Monthly, weekly and daily charts remain very bullish. Has wave 3 ended yet? IF we have 5 waves down, THEN look for abc 3 wave type of correction back to the .618 to .786 fib levels (1370.50 and 1371.00ish for the current range. Mixed signals currently... so very difficult to hold onto a trade ... best to scalp and take small profits.

Update at 10:43 EST: .618 tgt hit at 1370.50. After the .618, look for retrace to previous .382 fib level, which is exactly what happened.

Update at 11:24 EST: Market stuck in range; Slightly bearish now, with resistance at 1370.75. 1368.00 Low needs to hold to go up. Buy test of 1368.00 low with tgt of test of 1372.00 high.

Update at 12:17 EST: 2nd tgt at .786 fib level of 1371.00 hit. Test of 1372.00 high for a quick scalp sell short if one were so inclined. We also have possible 5 waves up into 1371.75 or 1372.00 high test. Market is more bullish than bearish now. Is the wave complete? Watch the 8min and 6000V for clues. IF we have 5 waves up in wave c , THEN look for retrace. One area of concern is that the 5 waves up are corrective looking, not impulsive looking, so is this wave c of wave B, and wave C is lower? Only time will tell.

Update at 12:39 EST: Scalps would have been stopped out; best to listen and pay attention to 120min and 60min charts. Looks like wave extention in wave 3 for now. Upside tgt now is 1373.00 to 1373.50 ish.

Update at 12:57 EST: 5 waves up now? Sell short against 1372.75 for low risk sell short trade for the retracement. 1372.00 LIS proving to be support for time being. Still a chance we can go to 1373.00 to 1373.50 ish tgt before retracing.

Update at 13:45 EST: 1.618 fib level here at 1374.50. 120min and 60min charts remain extremely bullish with no sell pattern in place. Possible 5 waves up; Sell short 1374.00 for bigger retracement.