Monday, October 23, 2006

ES #F 102306 Wave 5 of Wave 3 Complete?

The ES spiked up to 1398 overnite to make the GH. Just as fast, in a couple of minutes, it was right back to the close of Friday. Globex low is currently at LIS of 1372.00. Market retraced off 1372.00 low to 1374.75 high for a good sell short entry to test the low.

We had been in a wave 4 type of pattern for last week. Overnite, we spiked up to higher high at 1398.00 It looks like wave 5 is complete, hence the much deeper pullback to 1370 (from 1398.00 new high). Possible 5 waves down from 1384.74. IF 5 waves, THEN look for retracement of the move down. Upside tgts: gap fill at 1374.75, 1375.75 ish, 1377.00 ish, 1380.50 ish, even as high as 1387.50 ish.

Update at 09:59 EST: Gap close tgt hit;

Update at 10:52 EST: Upside tgts hit; PRZ here with .786 at 1381.50 and 1.27 also. Sell short for the retracement. LIS is currently at 1380.25. So scalp only for now. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish, and we are probably going to test the GH to some extent. This is a possible BIG wave 4 that we are in.

Update at 11:23 EST: 5 waves up into 1383.75. Sell patterns setting up on both 8min and 6000V charts. Higher timeframe charts remain bullish still. Watching carefully.

Update at 12:05 EST: Look for higher still.

Update at 12:35 EST: Small 5 waves up in 1384.50; sell short 1384.00 for bigger retracement.

Update at 13:13 EST: 5 waves down from high of 1384.75, and divergence and buy off 6000V. Look for .618 retracement at 1383.25.

Update at 13:19 EST: tgt hit. Mixed signals now. Could go either way. However, we do have a bearish gartley butterfly pattern against 1383.75. So the trend is still down for now.

Update at 13:49 EST: Downside tgts: 1379.00, 1375.50ish, 1373.25 ish, test of 1370.00 low.

Update at 14:06 EST: Hold resistance becomes new support at LIS of 1380.25; Let's see how long this will hold.

Update at 14:20 EST: 1379.00 tgt hit; Buy patterns setting up on both 8min and 6000V Charts.

Update at 15:22 EST: Sell on first test of 1384.50 high.

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