ES #F 100606 Full Moon in effect?

Globex Low is currently at 1358.50 which is a .707 fib level of the last move up. 120 min chart shows a triggered sell pattern with no buy pattern in place. 8min and 6000V currently show support at the GL with divergence, for a retracement back up. IF we go down, THEN look for support off the current LIS at 1356.50.

Update at 08:31 EST: 8:30 report came out, mkt spiked down to 1357.00 and test of 1356.50 low, then ran up to the .618 fib level and prior high at 1360.75; market falls back to the .786 fib level. 120min remains bearish.

Update at 08:38 EST: Test of current GL at 1357.00. Look for JOT ss pattern upon retracement. Sell 1358.00 for another test of 1356.50 low.

Update at 09:40 EST: Short term support off PRZ at 1353.75: it is a .618 fib level, .500 level, and also a 1.414 fib level. Be on alert for shallow retracement.

Update at 09:55 EST: 60min chart remains bearish; no buy in sight. Look for current low at 1353.50 to be broken. Next test is possible 1350.50 LIS.

Update at 09:59 EST: I see a double bottom for scalp long entry. Higher risk because retracement could be narrow.

Update at 10:23 EST: Long scalp entry triggered on test of 1353.25 low. First tgt is test of current high at 1356.25. Can also hold runner for higher.

Update at 10:33 EST: Current high tested; provided JOT sell short entry also. Range getting tighter and tighter, making it tougher to scalp the edges. Are we building a base for higher? Looking and more and more like it is.

Update at 10:43 EST: Long 1355.00 for gap close.

Update at 10:51 EST: Sell patterns on both 8min and 6000V chart for pullback; current LIS is 1356.50. Possible wave 4, and then higher high. Wave 3 could be extending. Watching carefully. Current support zone off 1356.00 ish. Look for possible JOT longs if we get there.

Update at 11:07 EST: Market finds support off LIS at 1356.50, but will it hold? Mixed signals with 8min and 6000V chart with sell patterns in place, and no buy pattern as of yet.

Update at 11:22 EST: Mixed signals continue. Slight upside bias for the moment. But things can change rather quickly. Sell signal here for test of low at 1353.25. It is a JOT sell against test of high at 1358.00. We are currently trading below the OP, and have been below all morning. The only problem is the 6000V chart is not in correct position for a high probability trade entry sell short.

Update at 11:32 EST: Sell short on test of 1358.00 high.

Update at 12:12 EST: 120min remains bearish; Possible long pattern setting up to be triggered off 8min and 6000V chart. Too bearish so higher risk.

Update at 12:18 EST: long 1354.50 for scalp. Let's see if we can pull 4 ticks out of this. This is the second time we have come to test the low, so higher risk trade entry. First trade usually higher probability of success. Price action is bearish. Lesson here is: Best to scalp in the direction of the trend .... NOT counter trend. In scalping, one needs a high success rate to be consistently profitable. IF short, stay short. Have to trust what I see, NOT what I think.

Update at 12:32 EST: What do I see? I see the low holding and both the 8min and 6000V chart in position to trigger long, hence the long scalp. Have not been stopped out as of yet. Either this trade works or it doesn't. As determined, high risk trade, and stopped out. The higher timeframe charts really tell the story.

Update at 13:30 EST: Are we in a big wave 4 type pattern? IF we are, is it complete?

Update at 13:21 EST: Important LIS at 1356.50 is now resistance. It is also a .707 fib level. Sell short against this for lower. It is also a .382 fib level. 120min chart remains bearish with no buy pattern as of yet. IF the low at 1352.50 holds, THEN look for buy pattern trigger off 8min and 6000V charts to enter long.

Update at 13:45 EST: We had a buy signal off Tick chart to enter long from 1356.00. A little late, so let's see if we can get at least 4ticks out of it. Looking for possible gap close. We need to stay above the 1356.50 LIS to make this a good long.

Update at 14:18 EST: 3 waves up into 1357.50 and mixed signals. Are we in a wave 3 that is extending, or are we in an abc consolidation type wave for lower? Both the 8min and 6000V charts have sell patterns ready to trigger. However, higher timeframe charts remain bullish.

Update at 14:36 EST: LIS holding; looking for gap close now.

Update at 14:45 EST: Resistance now at 1359.50, which is a 1.27 fib level and in zone of .618 fib level 1359.25. Do NOT ignore confluence of sell signals -- both 8min and 6000V had sell signals. This would be conservative exit to preserve profits. We did hit confluence of resistance at PRZ (1.27 fib and .618 fib). Weaker now as we cannot hold the OP; down we go.

Update at 15:33 EST: Support at .50 fib level and also 1356.50 LIS. 120min and 60min charts still stay we have possible upside.

Update at 16:02 EST: 3 waves up into 1360.00. We are still shy of gap fill still.