ES #F 083106 End of the Month

The market has hit a .786 fib off the daily chart at 1308.76. This .786 fib level sets up a bearish gartley butterfly off the daily chart. We currently have mixed charts this morning. The lower timeframe charts are slightly bearish, but the higher timeframe charts show that upside is possible. When I see mixed signals like this, often it means we are stuck in consolidation/congestion range. So far, we have made 5 waves down into 1303.00.75 from the high of 1308.75; then we made an abc move into 1308.00 and test of high; now we have just made a 3 wave abc move down into lower low at 1303.00. Today is also month end.

Update at 08:35 EST: We have a test of top now for a low risk sell short entry.

Update at 10:30 EST: Market looks weak; continue to hold short.

Update at 11:20 EST: Looking for lower lows today.

Update at 12:10 EST: Stuck in same range waiting for Bernanke to finish. Market could go either way once he is finished. Daily chart in position for lower as are the 120min and 60min charts. Currently the 15min chart shows that it wants to bounce. We could be stuck in a small wave 4; then drop lower.

Update at 15:21 EST: Market tested the low, bounced, and is now re-testing the 1308.25 high from this morning. We remain stuck in a narrow range day.

Update at 15:58 EST: Marketing selling off the 1308.25 high test. Do we just extend in this triangle, or do we actually get to break down so late in the trading day?