ES #F 082306 Breakout or Breakdown?

Still stuck in the same range as yesterday. Globex high found resistance at a .707 fib level. Globex low found support at a .618 fib retracement. Daily chart shows LIS at 1297.75. IF that holds, THEN we should see higher highs. Uptrend line on Daily chart remains intact. 120min chart shows a descending triangle pattern formation. Currently the 30min charts upside trend, looking for test of globex high at 1303.25 and possibly higher.

All charts show consolidation/congestion range. Let's see if we get breakout/breakdown today. We can go either way, so looking to lower timeframe charts for direction.

Update at 09:00 EST: Small bearish gartley butterfly off 1302.25 high.

Update at 09:33 EST; Gap is closed, and bearish gartley butterfly is still in play although I expect we will get stopped out, as price action is bullish, and OP is support. Okay, stopped out. 120min chart says we go up for a now. 1304.00 is a .786 fib level, but 120min says higher still. Upside targets for today: 1304.50, 1305.50, 1306.50, 1307.75 test, 1309.25, 1310.25

Update at 09:43 EST: 1304.25 is a 1.27 fib level for possible retracement before higher. Reason for taking the sell short: 1) 1.27 fib level 2) possible wave b as we had 3 waves or abc into the 1304.25 3) .786 fib. We have overbalanced, so possible we can go lower. Looking for test of 1297.25 low from yesterday and lower.

Update at 10:27 EST: Support for now at the .786 fib; Bear flag for lower?; retracement shallow. Higher timeframes still bearish; IF we continue lower, THEN a sell off the daily will be triggered for an even deeper pullback possibility. LIS at 1297.75 is key level for today.

Update at 10:45 EST: 1298. is both a 1.27 fib and a .886 fib level. But higher timeframes still very bearish, so lower still to come. Today' s test of 1297.75 low will be for the second time; i would expect this to become resistance once we break clear through to the downside.

Note: 1297.25, yesterday's low is now a 1.414 fib level. and a double bottom. Will it hold, or will it break? 8min chart says it is still bearish; so we can either go sideways or go down for now.

Update at 11:00 EST: 1296.75 was a prior level of support. Market pausing here for a bit. Downside target for today is 1290.50; lets see if we can get there today or not. We also have a gap at 1287.75 that remains to be filled.

Update at 11:09 EST: Market pausing at 1295.25 which is a 1.27 fib level.

Update at 11:22 EST: Potential PRZ here - 1.27 is 1293.75, .382 is 1293.75, 1.414 is 1294.25. good area to "take some off the table", as I think we will chop for a bit now. 1294.00 is also a visual off the daily chart.

Update at 12:17 EST: Old support becomes new resistance at that 1297.75 to 1297.25 PRZ. 5 waves up into that small PRZ, so we pullback. Let's see if we get to the small .618 fib level. Yep, .618 now hit, and possibly lower, as I have no buy pattern yet. IF the low at 1294.00 hold, THEN I will be looking for a buy pattern. Otherwise I will be looking for a sell against the 1297.50 high must made. Keep in mind that the higher timeframe charts remain bearish.

Update at 13:09 EST: 60min chart still bearish. abc now into test of 1294.00 low. Can we lift from here, or do we go lower? Watching lower timeframe charts carefully for market to tip its hand as to which way is more likely. Currently we have abc 3 wave pattern into small .707 fib level at 1295.00. 8min and 6000V chart are in buy position. This pattern makes for a small bullish gartley butterfly pattern. Just need price action to confirm that it wants to go up, otherwise down.

Update at 13:29 EST: 8min chart shows 3 bars with a low of 1295.00. Let's see if it will hold or not. 3 bar 3 tick rule here for a long off the 1295.00 low as a scalp only. This makes for a good entry with limited risk. Let's see if it will work or not. Volume has just about died, and higher timeframe charts are still bearish for now. Price action is bearish also. Expecting it to be stopped out since price action is bearish.

Update at 13:37 EST: Stopped on long scalp. IF 1294.00 is broken, THEN look for today's downside targets: 1290.50 to 1287.75. And down we go. Next major LIS is 1290.00.

Update at 14:14 EST: Interesting note -- 1292.00 is a 1.414 fib level and a 1.618 fib level for a small PRZ. Still bearish, and looking for lower lows .... eventually.

Update at 15:38 EST: So we make it to 1291.50 before retracing higher. There was a buy pattern on both 15min and 30min charts; as well as a potential one off the 60min chart. Also, towards the end of the day, and would expect some short covering to occur. The daily chart however, remains bearish for now.